INSIDE PORTUGAL

Call for new 'assassination' inquiry

Parliamentarians are demanding yet another inquiry into Portugal's most intriguing and enduring political mystery, the death of former Prime Minister Francisco de Sá Carneiro and his defence minister, Adelino Amaro da Costa.

Thirty years ago, on 4 December 1980, a light plane carrying the two politicians crashed soon after take-off from Lisbon Airport. They were on their way to a presidential election rally in Oporto.

Conspiracy theories about the cause of the crash persist despite no fewer than eight previous commissions of inquiry. Accidental death was the original official explanation. The crash was blamed on technical failure and pilot error, but many Portuguese remain convinced the plane was deliberately blown up.

Sá Carneiro was a founder of the Popular Democratic Party, which later became the Social Democratic Party (PSD). He had been prime minister for only 11 months when he boarded the aircraft, a Cessna 421, on that fateful night.

Eye-witnesses said they saw pieces falling from the plane moments after it took off. The strongest conspiracy theory suggests that Sá Carneiro and da Costa were the victims of an assassination plot connected to an arms-for-hostages deal and a rigged US presidential election.

The crash occurred the year after the revolution in Iran that brought Ayatollah Khomeini to power. Fifty-two Americans were taken hostage when youthful Islamists stormed the US Embassy in Tehran in November 1979. The hostages were held for 444 days from 4 November 1979 to 20 January 1981. Following the spectacular failure of a US military rescue operation with eight US servicemen and one Iranian civilian’s dead, President Jimmy Carter resorted to diplomatic efforts.

Conspiracy theorists believe da Costa had information that senior Portuguese army officers were secretly passing arms to Iran as part of a plot by US Republicans to damage Carter's re-election campaign during this time.

Ronald Reagan and his vice-presidential candidate, George Bush Sr, were said to have struck a deal with the Iranian leadership to have the release of the hostages delayed until after the election in order to give them an electoral advantage.

It is thought that da Costa was targeted because he had uncovered evidence of a secret Portuguese army slush fund to be used for arms deals. He was allegedly killed to conceal evidence of the illegal arms movement through Portugal, which he was determined to stop.

Experts on IRA and ETA bombs have been among those suggesting a high-level campaign to conceal the truth.

After 30 years and eight commissions of inquiry, Portuguese parliamentarians of all parties are now being urged to demand a fresh inquiry in the hope that the truth will finally be revealed.

INSIDE ALGARVE

High hopes of royal honeymoon here

We wait with bated breath to learn from Buckingham Palace if Prince William and his finance Kate Middleton accept an invitation to spend their honeymoon in the Algarve.

The invitation has been sent by the Algarve Tourist Board via the British Embassy in Lisbon. It was personally conveyed by the president of the Tourist Board, Nuno Aires, to the retiring British Ambassador, Alex Ellis, at a dinner in the Algarve last week.

Neither the Foreign & Commonwealth Office nor Buckingham Palace will comment or say how many other such invitations have been received from around the world.

Several resorts and hotels in the Algarve have reportedly offered accommodation and facilities to the royal couple. No doubt they, along with the Tourist Board, are sincere in wishing William and Kate well and would do their very best to ensure an enjoyable time.

But a royal honeymoon in the Algarve is just wishful thinking.

The wedding is in Westminster Abbey on 29^th April. Okay, so the weather at the end of April and in early May in the Algarve is likely to be very pleasant. The countryside will be looking its best with windflowers abounding. Peace would normally reign in the post-Easter lull.

The arrival of the royal couple, however, would be accompanied by a veritable invasion of reporters and photographers, idolising fans and silly gawkers, not to mention perhaps a terrorist of two with paradise in mind.

Ensuring the couple's safety and seclusion would be a major problem, though not an insurmountable one bearing in mind the excellent job done recently by the security services during the NATO conference in Lisbon. Euro 2004 was another good example of how well the Portuguese police, working in conjunction with British security experts, can handle potentially boisterous hordes.

Obviously the hope in tourist circles here is that the royal honeymoon would boost the Algarve's image as a holiday destination. It's not a bad idea. A leading light in the local tourist industry called it “a good marketing iniative”.

But, frankly, it's a desperate one - and it isn't going to work.

For starters, it is highly unlikely that the second-in-line to the British throne and his gorgeous new wife would want to be so blatantly used for PR purposes. Secondly, lovely as the Algarve is, as a honeymoon destination for the likes of Prince William and Kate it is a bit tame. They might prefer somewhere a bit more exotic, well away from prying eyes, among wild animals other than Homo sapiens.

The Algarve is not virgin territory for the royal household. Sarah Ferguson, Duchess of York, came with her children and stayed in a private house near Lagos some years ago, but cut short her stay complaining of press intrusion.

Prince William knows the area a little bit having visited with a bunch of his chums on a stag week in 2005. His stay near Carrapateira on the West Coast was kept very hush-hush, but there is no way he could repeat that.

The invitation from the Tourist Board is a desperate one because, frankly, the regional tourist industry is in distress, if not a mess.

Astute insiders say the trouble is that we have not been able to keep up with the times. We're out-of-date. A great many tourists have moved on from the package holiday arrangements that served us so well in the '90s and up until the early years of the new millennium. As air travel became cheaper, people started venturing forth to new, emerging destinations.

The turnover in resorts and hotels in the Algarve was way down in 2008. The year 2009 turned out to be the worst in 15 years. It got worse still in 2010 and the expectation is that it will be worse again next year.

Let's not knock the Algarve Tourist Board and others in the struggling tourist sector for trying, but they will have to come up with a better initiative than asking William and Kate to drop by next spring.

PORTUGAL TODAY

Dream over, back to reality

More than anything, the football World Cup is about money. Portugal stood to earn loads of it had its joint bid with Spain succeeded in Zurich yesterday. Billions of euros were up for grabs. It was reckoned that the revenues for Iberia would have been six and a half times greater than the expenditure needed to host the event.

As it turns out, Iberia's bid was but a dream. With hopes for 2018 dashed, it's back to worrying about the economy today. And that hoary old question persists: will Portugal need a bailout or not?

Prime Minister José Sócrates still insists not. “Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose,” he said after the announcement in Zurich. He was more upbeat on a possible bailout and the humiliation of having Portuguese financial affairs dictated by Brussels. The 2011 austerity budget with its tax rises and public sector pay cuts will do the trick, he believes.

German Economy Minister Rainer Bruederle says he doesn't think either Portugal or Spain will need a euro zone rescue plan. However, this runs counter to what many economists have been saying for weeks now, namely that it's not a question of if, but when.

"I hope the IMF does not turn to Portugal but I don't see this as an extraordinary problem," said Fernando Ulrich, chief executive of Banco BPI. "It is Germany that will decide if it comes, not the Portuguese government.”

If Portugal is deemed to need a bailout, many analysts believe Spain will inevitably be next. That would require a far mightier rescue effort.

The current economic plight of Portugal and Spain will be high on the agenda at the Iberian-American summit meeting in Argentina today and tomorrow. No doubt the Brazilian and other Latin American leaders will commiserate with those from Portugal and Spain over the failure in Zurich yesterday. This could be a good opportunity for the former colonial masters to pass around the hat.

PORTUGAL TODAY

2018 World Cup countdown

Ah well, you can't win 'em all. Someone had to lose. Dismay is sweeping through the Iberian peninsula with the announcement that Russia has clinched the right to host the 2018 football World Cup.

The decision by the executive committee of FIFA in a secret ballot in Zurich this afternoon will come as a big disappointment too in England, Holland and Belgium.

The Portugal/Spain bid was well-thought out and highly professional but it apparently lacked the appeal that Russia brought to bear.

Spain, of course, was the senior partner in the Iberian bid, but Portugal's experience in hosting Euro 2004 would have brought added expertise to the mega-event in 2018.

Together the two nations were able to highlight the fact that they have a vast amount of necessary infrastructure already in place, plus great experience in handing large numbers of visitors. “We could organise a World Cup next month if necessary,” Spain's Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero said in Zurich this morning.

It wasn't enough. Russia are the victors.

The FIFA executives had plenty of time prior to this week to study the rival bids, but here's how the day of decision unfolded.....

The X Factor and Strictly Come Dancing arn't a patch on this. Portugal and Spain have put in a joint bid to hold the football World Cup in 2018, but they are up against formidable opposition: Russia, England and Holland/Belgium. A 22-member panel of FIFA executives will make their decision in Zurich this afternoon. Everyone says it's too close to call. Yesterday, Russia seemed to be the favourites. Portugal/Spain are said to be "quietly confident". England have a strong bid too. As David Beckham has so aptly put it, the winning goal is sometimes scored in the final minutes of a game. This morning, each of the contenders, startring with Holland and Belgium, makes a final 30-minute presentation.

9.0am - Portugal and Spain prepare to start their final presentation. One of their strongest points is that in times of austerity they have much of the necessary infrastructure already in place. For example, between them they have 21 top stadiums.

9.40am -  Portugal/Spain conclude their strong final presentation. If they or any of the other contenders do not get sufficient initial votes, it may go to a second round of voting.

10.05am - England presentation starts. The big guns in the England delegation include David Cameron, Prince William, David Beckham and Sir Bobby Charlton. It is thought unlikely that England or any of the other contenders will get the magic figure of 12 votes in the first ballot. If not the lowest scorer will be out and it will go to a second round.

10. 38am - England's 30-minute presentation, kicked off by Prince William, was very slick indeed. David Cameron and David Beckham were outstanding. You have to say, too, that much of the presentation was delivered with the sort of emotion and passion one normally associates with Latins.

11.0am – Russia's bid started slowly but has steadily gained momentum over the past two years. Despite Prime Minister Putin's decision not to show up in Zurich, many regard Russia as the most likely winners today. Their final presentation is about to start.

11.45am - The four presentations are now over. The Netherlands and Belgium were first off this morning but their assertion that “small is beautiful” is unlikely to sway the 22-member FIFA panel. It was a lively and entertaining presentation compared with that from Portugal and Spain. Led by President José Luis Rodrigues Zapatero, the Iberian presentation noted that the peninsula has 50 modern airports, is used to annually handling 70 million visitors and can boast 300 days of sunshine a year. England's was a much brighter and more polished performance, full of glitzy characters. Russia put on a competent show and tried to woo the judges by emphasising that Russia is entering a new era of openness to the world. Many would say that England won this final phase of the competition, but Russia and Portugal/Spain are certainly not out of it.

The nation to be given the opportunity of hosting the 2018 World Cup will be named at about 3.0pm.

PORTUGAL TODAY

Lisbon dispatches released by Wikileaks

The huge batch of documents released by Wikileaks at the weekend is said to contain 722 dispatches sent from the United States Embassy in Lisbon. Some are marked “Secret”. Tantalisingly, we don't know yet what is in them.

Many people would rather we were not be told, but it seems likely that we will be, especially if the contents of the documents are controversial or embarrassing in any way.

First reports suggest that many of the 722 cables focus on global terrorism, military operations and the economy. The first of the communications was sent on 24 May 2006 and the last on 25 February this year.

The US Embassy in Lisbon yesterday condemned Wikileaks. In line with Secretary of State Hilary Clinton's castigation in a TV broadcast, the Embassy called the Wikileaks action an irresponsible attempt to destroy global security, adding that it could endanger lives.

Following yesterday's revelations about Arab countries wanting the US to bomb Iran, comes news this morning that China would be willing to accept Korean reunification.

There is more, much more to come.

PORTUGAL TOMORROW

Old Iberian foes stand united

Government offices, banks and many businesses will be closed tomorrow. It's not another general strike. It's a day of celebration rather than protest. It's Portugal's Independence Day and this year there is an interesting twist to it.

What is being celebrated is not the country's original independence back in 1145. That's what October 5th is all about. December 1st marks the anniversary of the restoration of independence from Spain following 60 years of Spanish domination between 1580 and 1640.

During that period of annexation, Spain dragged Portugal into wars against the English, the French and the Dutch. The 'invincible' Spanish Armada set sail in 1588 not from Spain, but Lisbon. To help pay for this and other foreign exploits, the Spanish heavily taxed the Portuguese people.

Right royally fed up of rule from Madrid by Philip IV, a band of conspirators stormed the Governor's palace in Lisbon in 1640 and by popular acclaim installed the Duke of Bragança as João IV of Portugal.

The relationship between the Iberian neighbours remained rather frosty right up until they became members of the European Union. Today they are united like never before. The two nations put in a joint bid to host the 2018 football World Cup.

They are competing against England, Russia and a joint Netherlands/Belgium bid. Portuguese and Spanish officials are said to be 'moderately confident” of winning. The executive of football's world ruling body, FIFA, will vote on it in Zurich on Thursday.

SIGNS OF THE TIMES

Wealth, wasted wisdom and counterfeit cash

The tycoon Stanley Ho of former Portuguese Macau paid $330,000 at the weekend for two Italian truffles.

The billionaire bought the truffles at an auction held simultaneously in Macau, Rome and London. They weighed 900 grams and 400 grams.

'The Gambling King' as he is know, held the monopoly on casinos in Macau for 40 years. He has investments in Portugal, including the Algarve, and has a road named after him in Estoril.

White truffles are the rarest and most expensive type. The 900 gram (two pound) fungus was found in Italy's central Tuscany region. The smaller one was from Molise.

The bidding was relayed via satellite link from the restaurants Don Alfonso 1890 in Macau, La Pergola in Rome and Franco's in Jeremy Street, London.

A total of 16 lots fetched altogether $373 000.“It was fun,” said Piers Boothman, associate director of Christie's International.

Proceeds will go to charity.

********* 

Portugal has never had so many university graduates - but it has never been so difficult for young people to find jobs. For many there is a stark choice: unemployment or emigration.

 

Some commentators are suggesting that the country is on track to lose an entire generation.

The academic qualifications of Portugal's workforce generally are considered to be low. So the number of graduates applying for jobs should be good news. And yet one in ten graduates is said to be leaving the country.

*********

More than ever we need to question if the cash in our pockets or under the mattress is for real. A report just out says that so far this year nearly €24 million in counterfeit notes have been detected in the eurozone.

In Portugal, the number of fake €50s this year has reached a record level. Reassuringly, however, the Bank of Portugal says the chance of receiving a counterfeit note in this country is “probably very low.” However, it advises us if in doubt “to check and compare.”

Of the half a million counterfeit notes detected in the EU between January and August, more than 215,000 were €50s. The next commonest were €20s.

INSIDE ALGARVE

Controversial retail giant signs deal

At a time of dismal economic predictions, business closures and job losses, comes news of a huge new commercial venture in the region.

A year after Ikea announced its hopes of opening a store in Loulé, the Swedish chain is to to sign a co-operation agreement with Loulé câmara next Thursday.

Ikea is the world's largest furniture retailer. It specialises in designing and selling ready-to-assemble furniture, home accessories and appliances.

In addition to a massive Ikea store, the new Loulé project is expected to incorporate a retail park and shopping mall. Hopefully by the time it all comes to fruition, Portugal will be well on the road to all-round prosperity.

The Loulé deal comes as a brand new book, The Truth about Ikea, is causing considerable controversy. The author, Johan Stenebo, is a former executive who worked his way up from trainee to managing director of an Ikea subsidiary, GreenTech.

In a review on Friday The Guardian called the book “explosive.” Stenebo claims that far from offering British shoppers a bargain, at the height of its power in the 1990s Ikea betrayed its golden rule – that prices should be 10% lower than those of its rivals – and ruthlessly overcharged British shoppers to boost profits.

As Businessweek put it, “The Swedish furniture giant has long been viewed as a model company. But an unprecedented insider account by a former exec paints a much darker picture.”

According to Stenebo, “few retailers are as smart at extracting money from customers' pockets.”

PORTUGAL TODAY

Mediterranean diet dumped

It would appear that most young people in this country have lost their appetite for the Mediterranean diet that is supposed to be so good for them.

More than 50 percent of the population aged between 10 and 18 are overweight and nearly nine percent are actually obese. These are the findings of a national study to be presented at a congress on obesity in Portugal today.

The study, by a team from the universities of Oporto and the Minho, says that obesity is most prevalent among the young and especially among boys. It is the impact this could have on health in later life, on mortality rates and the economy, that is concerning specialists.

The researchers who carried out the study believe the blame for 95% of childhood obesity can be attributed to nutritional and lifestyle problems. Only 5% of cases are genetic in character. Today's conference will discuss what more can be done to contain the problem.

The overweight trend is not confined to Portugal, of course. It is rampant in the other Mediterranean diet countries of southern Europe. Indeed, people are getting fatter almost everywhere. Obesity has reached epidemic proportions globally. The World Health Organisation predicts there will be 2.3 billion overweight adults in the world by 2015 and more than 700 million of them will be obese.

This is mainly due to increased consumption of more energy dense, poor nutrient foods with high levels of sugar and saturated fats, combined with less physical activity. The upshot here and elsewhere is expected to be an exponential rise in heart problems, type II diabetes and other diseases, including some cancers.

Much of this could be curtailed by more exercise and a return to the Mediterranean diet. So bring on the fish, vegetables, fruit and whole grains, along with a generous splash of virgin olive oil and, for those who are old enough, a glass or two of red wine.