Odd weather adds to climate confusion

The storms that battered Portugal’s entire coastline recently, plus extensive flooding in England, prolonged drought in California, extreme cold in northeastern America and extreme heat in Australia, have created further confusion over climate change.

In the aftermath of the most violent waves in 20 years, the cash-strapped Portuguese government is committed to finding €300 million for reconstruction projects, and to reassessing the national strategy for coastal protection.

This is being done amid the backdrop of the National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change (ENAAC), part of an initiative set in motion by the European Commission to help EU members access and share information on the subject.

The EC’s view is that the climate is certainly changing and that it will continue to do so with far-reaching consequences. ‘Adaptation’ means anticipating the adverse effects and taking appropriate action to prevent or minimise the damage they can cause.

“Early action will save damage costs later on, so adaptation strategies are needed at all levels of administration, from local to international,” according to the EC.

So Portugal and the EC seem to be in accord, but there is still considerable public confusion internationally about the way in which the climate is changing and whether or not humans are making things worse.

Opinions differ among the global ‘experts’ and it is hard to know who to believe because the science is all so iffy.

Prime Minister David Cameron told the British  parliament that climate change could be behind the relentless rains and flooding that wreaked havoc on Britain recently, but according to the British Met office “it is too early” to make that kind of judgement.  

With the same sort of diffidence, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - the world leader on research into climate change – last year published a report claiming there was some evidence linking some types of extreme weather with man-made climate change.

Extreme weather events have been occurring sporadically throughout history (at least since Noah’s time, according to Genesis). But the chances of them occurring nowadays seem to be increasing. Global warming is increasingly getting the blame.

But is the globe really warming? Many people sitting around their firesides in the northern hemisphere this winter find it hard to believe. Some think it feels more like another ice age on the way.

Part of the bewilderment lies in a misunderstanding of the words ‘weather’ and ‘climate.’ The difference is that ‘weather’ is defined as atmospheric conditions over a short period of time, whereas ‘climate’ refers to conditions over relatively long stretches – months, years, decades or more.

Presenters on Fox News, famous for denying the existence of global warming, predictably used the recent deep freeze in the US to mock the scientific evidence on climate change.

Donald Trump went further and used the stranding of a Russian research ship in ice in Antarctia as another reason to demand in a tweet: “this very expensive global warming bullshit has got to stop.”

The great majority of climatologists believe that weather patterns and trends (rather than individual events) suggest the planet is indeed getting warmer, that carbon dioxide emissions are compounding the situation and that to deny this could have dire repercussions.

Portugal is currently among the world leaders in the annual Climate Change Performance Index. Along with Denmark it relies for its electricity on renewable sources more than other countries in the EU. While little Portugal is doing its bit, China and the other big offenders need to do much more if CO2 emissions are to be reduced from the 2012 record level of 34.5 billion tionnes.   

Within Europe, Portugal and the Mediterranean countries are thought to be the most vulnerable to climate change. With or without stringent controls on CO2 emissions, the long-range forecast is for less rainfall, more heat-waves and droughts. Sea levels are expected to rise significantly, placing much of the coastline at risk before the end of the century.

All this could severely affect such things as food production and the tourist industry.  Desertification could make the landscapes in southern Portugal more like those in northern Africa.

More clarity about what is going on could be just around the corner. Researchers and policy-makers will be attending a three-day international conference in Lisbon 10-12 March. The objective, say the organisers, Circle-2: “To share the results of 10 years of co-operation in climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation research and pave the way for the development of new research in support of climate change adaptation in Europe in the next decade.”

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Drilling for gas will be ‘clean and safe’

 The multinational Repsol-Partex oil and gas consortium says it will commence “clean and safe” exploratory drilling off the south coast of Portugal late this year or early next, but it may be another four or five years before it can accurately gauge if hydrocarbon deposits are sufficient to make it worthwhile to proceed to commercial extraction.

The consortium has already carried out seismic surveys and other preparatory studies since acquiring the offshore concession for blocks 13 and 14 in Algarve waters in October 2011. As the exploration is still in the preliminary stages, no firm date can yet be set for the start of drilling.

Repsol, with its headquarters in Madrid and 90% of the shares in the partnership with Lisbon-based Partex, is the main operator in the Algarve project.

In September 2012, Repsol in partnership with Petrobras, Galp and Partex acquired the rights to prospect in Peniche Bay north of Lisbon. The Brazilian corporation Petrobras withdrew from the consortium last May leaving Repsol as the project operator with 65% of the shares. Galp has 30% participation and Partex the remaining 5%. Drilling off Peniche is not expected to start until at least 2016.

While much more sophisticated exploratory techniques exist these days, onshore and offshore searches have been carried out in Portuguese waters for many decades. Several major companies, including Shell, Chevron and Esso, have drilled scores of wells in various demarcated blocks, especially since the 1970s. No commercial production has ever been achieved.

The Poseidon gas fields in the Cadiz basin suggest that deposits in the neighbouring Algarve basin are more likely to contain commercial quantities of natural gas rather than oil. 

A Repsol spokesman told Portugal Newswatch this week that environmental and safety studies are being carried out before any drilling takes place. This comes amid public concerns about the possible impact of drilling on regional tourism and the economy, as well as the fishing industry, marine ecosystems and coastal landscapes.

“Environmental and safety studies are being conducted to guarantee a clean and safe drilling operation,” the spokesman said. “Repsol does environmental and safety studies prior to any operation, taking into account the social, economic and environmental issues and following legislation and the highest international standards in the industry. The company takes into consideration such studies in the planning of the operations and works closely with national and local authorities.”

On the subject of pollution, the spokesman added: “One basic difference between gas and oil is that gas evaporates and oil needs containment on water surfaces. In the event of a well failure, gas spills are easier to control than oil spills, as the gas is not retained in the seawater. No water pollution is generated and the hydrocarbon bubbles into the atmosphere until well control is achieved. In the Algarve, as no hazardous gas is expected, a gas pollution case is an extremely improbable situation.”

It is still too early in the exploration process to know exactly where the Algarve or Peniche drilling rigs will be located, “but they will always be some tens of kilometres off the coast and will not be visible from the shore,” said the spokesman.  

 * Photo of oil and gas operation in the Gulf of Mexico

Golden visas offer the keys to Europe

At a time when Britain is worrying about an influx of workers from poor European Union countries, Portugal is enthusiastically encouraging rich entrepreneurs from outside the EU.

Romanian and Bulgarians, especially those likely to seek welfare benefits, are causing panic in Britain because immigration restrictions are to be lifted on January 1.

Meanwhile, Chinese, Russian and other foreign nationals are being wholeheartedly welcomed here in return for investments under the so-called Golden Visa scheme. 

In return for buying property for upwards of half a million euros ($700,000), or capital transfers of more than a million, a golden visa allows non-EU citizens to reside in Portugal for five years without having to pay tax on foreign-earnings. It also gives the right to move around in the Schengen area, which includes nearly all the countries across Europe, but not the UK.

After the initial five years, visa holders may become Portuguese passport holders and thus full citizens of the European Union.

A recent YouGov poll for The Sun newspaper in the UK showed that 72% of Britons wanted their government to limit immigration from other EU countries, fearing that immigrants might take their jobs or strain public services.

The European Commission rebuked Prime Minister David Cameron for saying he  aims to restrict the relocation of migrants from poorer to richer EU states, saying EU membership confers only a qualified right to freedom of movement.

Portugal being one of the poorer states does not have an immigration problem. On the contrary, the mass exodus of Portuguese job seekers to richer countries, including Britain, continued this year at about the same rate as last. Official estimates put the figure at between 100,000 and 120,000 annually leaving their homeland.

High unemployment and severe austerity make Portugal an unattractive country to many outsiders too. Recent reports say even refugees arriving from Syria and other Muslim conflict zones don’t want to stay here. Portugal is merely a stepping-stone.

It seems to be merely a stepping-stone for many of those applying for golden vistas too. Unlike the Romanians and Bulgarians who are hoping to stay in Britain, many of the Chinese and other foreign investors are using their golden visas to set up yield-bearing arrangements in this country that will allow them to live or do business elsewhere in Europe.

For example, they are looking for easily rentable properties in prime Lisbon locations or condominium resorts in the Algarve. Estate agents are scrambling to make sales. Many highly attractive properties are on offer at prices that have dropped by nearly a third since the country was forced to apply for a bailout in 2011.

Agents say plush apartments are available in Lisbon at the same price buyers would have to pay for properties half the size in Beijing or Shanghai. With this in mind, delegations from Portugal attended China’s largest international real estate fair in Shanghai this month.

The golden visa scheme attracted little interest when it was introduced over a year ago. It now seems to be taking off, with applications rolling in mainly from China, but also Russia, Brazil, Angola and India.

According to an official tally released early this month, the scheme had brought in a total of €222 million from 256 visa holders. More than 300 applications were said to be in the pipeline. Nearly all were expected to be approved, which would bring the total investment since the scheme was set up to around €600,000 million.

Introduced by the centre-right coalition government, the golden visa programme has the tacit support of the Socialist opposition party. The only severe critics are the far-right National Renovator party whose leader, José Pinto-Coelho, claims the country is “prostituting itself.”

If so, it is not the only one. Other EU countries in serious financial straits - Spain, Greece and Cyprus - have their own golden visa programmes. So too do some of Europe’s wealthier nations, including Germany and the Netherlands.

As the year ends, the poor are as problematic as ever, while the competition to attract the rich is fierce and rewarding.

Top judges spark pre-Christmas crisis

The approach of Christmas brings fresh worries to Portugal and its hopes of returning to something like financial stability next year.

Once again, the biggest threat to the government's efforts to exit the country’s bailout – and to the continued existence of the present government itself - comes not from politicians but judges.

The latest decision by the nation’s Constitutional Court has blocked a highly unpopular bid to cut public sector pensions. It is the fourth time judges in the highest court in the land (pictured below) have blocked government measures this year. They may do the same to plans to cut the salaries of public sector workers.

As with earlier rulings on austerity measures, the Constitutional Court judges have stymied efforts to cut spending ahead of Portugal’s planned exit from its €78 billion ($107 billion) bailout next June.

The latest decision outlawed a key measure in the 2014 budget calling for cuts of up to 10 percent in civil service pensions over €600 a month. The 13-member court unanimously declared the proposal “unconstitutional” as it was a “violation of the principle of trust.”

This brought renewed calls from street protesters as well as opposition politicians for the government’s resignation. Arménio Carlos, leader of Portugal’s largest trade union, CGTP, condemned the government’s austerity policies as “attacks on human rights.”

An ever-growing number of citizens are claiming that the coalition government is more like a dictatorship than a democratic institution and that it has lost touch with public opinion and the people’s needs. Protesters want President Aníbal Cavaco Silva to veto the controversial State Budget and call early elections.

The pension cuts would have saved an estimated €388 million, funds the government must now find elsewhere to comply with the country’s bailout deal with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. The most likely alternative savings will involve hikes in VAT, which are sure to spark more public outrage.

While there is serious disenchantment with the present centre-right coalition, the question arises: would any other set of politicians in the country be able to do any better? Incompetence and inefficiency are thought to be rife in just about all sectors and at all levels of the administration and the civil service.

Portugal has so far received €71.4 billion of the bailout money it was promised. The government hopes it can follow Ireland’s lead and exit by staying on target to meet the bailout requirements and return to normal financing in the bond markets.

Not everyone is pessimistic. In the days leading up to the latest court ruling, the European Commission expressed qualified optimism that Portugal would be able to find an alternative way to meet its 2014 budget deficit target. “Such measures, however, could heighten risks to growth and employment and reduce the prospects for a sustained return to financial markets,” said a commission spokesman.

The Financial Times today quoted Charles Schulz, a senior economist with Germany’s Berenberg Bank, as saying that Portugal still had a good chance of leaving its bailout programme in June. “The economy is growing, political risks are limited and the government is reforming the economy. But the errors of the past will continue to weigh on Portugal’s prospects.”

On hearing of the court’s rejection after the first session of an EU summit in Brussels last night, German Chancellor Angela Merkel told reporters: “It’s not an easy situation but I think Portugal will find a way to solve it.”

What do you think?

Is the government on the right track, or has it got it all wrong?Your comments below please. 

Drug law reform: a bold new initiative

Uruguay has joined Portugal in the forefront of drug law reform by becoming the first country in the world to make it legal to grow, sell and smoke marijuana.

When the law approved by the senate in Uruguay comes into force and marijuana is being grown legally within its own borders, Uruguyans over the age of 18 will be allowed to buy up to 40 grams of pot per month from licensed pharmacies.

Twelve years ago Portugal became the first country to fully decriminalise the personal use of all kinds of drugs. Decriminalising did not mean legalising. Personal use remained unlawful but was no longer regarded as a criminal offence. Trafficking or dealing remained a serious crime.

‘Quantities for personal use’ is defined as one gram of heroin, two grams of cocaine, five grams of hashish or 25 grams of marijuana leaves. That is the maximum allowed for a 10-day period.

Illicit drug use in Portugal is treated as a misdemeanour that demands counselling or vocational training rather than prosecution. On the premise that addicts are ‘sick’ rather than ‘criminals,’ the solution now lies in national health centres rather than the courts and prisons.

The policy is still controversial. It seems to be working well even if not deemed an unqualified success. The number of addicts seeking rehab has gone up. The number of HIV cases among intravenous drug users has significantly dropped. Usage has not dramatically increased and Portugal has not become a haven for drug tourists. Most of the doubters have come to accept that even if it has not radically improved the situation, at least it has not made it worse.

Opponents of the law change in Uruguay claim state control will be a “social engineering experiment” likely to expose more people to a drug that critics consider more harmful than its advocates make out.

Supporters of legalising marijuana characterise it is a sensible response to the global ‘war’ on drugs that by common agreement has hopelessly failed everywhere. They believe that state control and setting the price as low as about €0.72 ($1) a gram will help push traffickers out of the market.

Although the pioneer of drug decriminalisation, Portugal has always been a dedicated partner in international efforts to curb the drug trade.

Portugal is itself on well-established intercontinental drug routes. Seizures and multinational arrests in this country are commonplace. Open borders within the European Union make the traffickers’ job easier, but the police are vigilant.

This summer, for example, Interpol supported by Europol led an operation involving 34 countries that targeted cross-Atlantic smuggling of drugs and illicit firearms. It resulted in 142 arrests, the seizure of 15 vessels, 42 guns and nearly 30 tonnes of cocaine, heroin and marijuana with an estimated value of €600 million ($822 million).

Dealing in drugs is like any other trade. It is about supply and demand and moving goods from their place of origin to the market place. Eradicating drug trafficking may be impossible, however, as it is globally so massive and secretive. Powerful cartels run by terrorist groups as well as criminal organisations, supported by money laundering involving some of the biggest banks in the world, are using poverty and the marginalisation of segments of society in Latin America, Asia and Africa to expand drug production and black economies.

Drugs generate about €300 billion ($400 billion) a year and account for about 8% of all international trade. Only time will tell if legalisation and decriminalisation at the national level can make any real dent in organised crime on such a scale.

Meanwhile, just as those with drug policy reform in mind in the United States, Britain and elsewhere have been closely following Portugal’s bold initiative, Uruguay’s ‘experiment’ is sure to be watched with great interest.

Mandela and the Portugal connection

The death of Nelson Mandela and the global outpouring of condolences to his widow evoke reminiscences of Portugal’s influence on the couple’s lives and on the history of South Africa as a whole.

Portuguese explorers in the 15^th century were the first Europeans to set foot in southern Africa. The Portuguese established initial trade links but went on to colonise neighbouring Mozambique and Angola to the east and northwest, leaving the central and southernmost territory to the Dutch and the British.

Portugal’s close association with the region continued right up to the second half of the 20th century when it played a pivotal role in the downfall of apartheid.

After Mandela’s imprisonment in 1964 on charges of inciting armed revolution, fiercely racist white politicians and security forces remained dominant in South Africa despite international condemnation of apartheid.  With one of the fastest growing economies in the world, commercial relationships thrived with the United States, Britain, France and other leading western countries.

Portugal on the other hand simply could not afford to sustain its opposition to the Russian and Chinese-backed liberation movements in Mozambique and Angola. The ‘Carnation’Revolution’ at home in 1974 was largely in opposition to the Portuguese dictatorship’s long and financially draining colonial war.

The Portuguese troop withdrawals and subsequent granting of independence to Mozambique and Angola hugely encouraged the determination of South Africa’s blacks and increasing numbers of like-minded whites.

Portugal’s exit from Africa in the second half of the 1970s gave real hope to the anti-apartheid movement spearheaded by the African National Congress of which Mandela remained an iconic figure while languishing in jail on Robben Island off the coast of Cape Town.

Among the much more racially tolerant Portuguese there had never been segregation in Mozambique or Angola, but after independence many emigrants moved across the border to South Africa. They enriched the multi-cultural though increasingly tense situation there.

Overwhelming international pressure in the late 1980s led to the collapse of the laws separating whites and blacks in South Africa. In 1994, Mandela, who had served 27 years in jail, was elected the country’s first black president. There then developed a much more personal connection between Portugal’s sphere of influence and President Mandela. 

With Mozambique in the throes of a post-independence civil war between the army of the ruling Frelimo government and South African-backed Renamo rebels in 1980s, the president of Mozambique Samora Machel, a fierce opponent of the neignbouring apartheid regime,  had been killed in a still mysterious plane crash  near the border of the two countries. 

Machel’s widow, Graça, had been born into a peasant family in rural Mozambique. She won a scholarship to high school in Mozambique’s capital, Maputo, but she was the only black in a class of white students.

“Why is it that I’m made to feel strange in my own country? They’re the foreigners, not me. Something is wrong here,” she remarked much later.

Another scholarship brought her to the University of Lisbon as a language student who became deeply involved in political and humanitarian issues.

On returning to Mozambique she joined Frelimo,  trained as a guerrilla fighter and became a schoolteacher, a contrasting but, as it turned out, sound preparation for her deployment as Mozambique’s first post-independence minister of education, a job she relished until well after her husband’s death.

Graça Machel first met Mandela, 27 years her senior,  soon after his release from Robben Island in 1990. In 1998, two years after Mandela’s highly publicised divorce from his second wife Winnie, Nelson and Graça married on his 80th birthday.

How ironic that two passionate rebels of different nationalities and almost different generations, both branded ‘guerrillas’ - or in modern parlance ‘terrorists’ - ended up contributing  so much to peace and reconciliation, not only in southern Africa, but across the world.

On reflection perhaps it is not so strange. As Mandela told the court before being sentenced to life imprisonment with hard labour: “I have fought against white domination, and I have fought against black domination. I have cherished the ideal of a democratic and free society in which all persons live together in harmony with equal opportunities. It is an ideal which I hope to live for, and to see realised. But, my Lord, if needs be, it is an ideal for which I am prepared to die.”

Oh that today’s political leaders had half that sort of moral commitment.

Is unisexism for all the way forward?

Portugal is in the middle order of world rankings when it comes to gender inequality. The gap is closing in several key areas, but there is little chance of this country ever catching up with remarkable developments in Sweden.

As one of the world’s most equal countries, Sweden has reached near parity in political representation, employment opportunities and wages. Not content with doing far more than most countries to eradicate gender discrimination, Sweden is forging ahead even further - into the uncharted territory of gender blending neutrality.

Plans are afoot to do away with gender altogether – well, almost. Just for starters, the most popular toys currently available in Sweden include sets of naked dolls in which each doll shows a different expression – a smile or a frown – but nothing that would identify it as representing a girl or a boy. 

Reporting on efforts to get rid of the idea that men and women are different, Time magazine recently noted that a growing number of Swedes are replacing their words ‘he’ (han) and ‘she’ (hon) with a new word -  hen. As unfortunate as it sounds in English, Swedish politicians are now using hen in parliament and it is routinely used in some leading newspapers.

Unisexism is not entirely new, but promoting gender neutrality on a national scale is viewed by many, even in Sweden, as feminism and political correctness gone mad. Yet Time ventured to predict that if Sweden succeeds, “the rest of the developed world may one day look at gender-neutral pronouns and gender-neutral dolls as every bit as essential to democracy as equal voting rights.”

Portugal has made very significant advances in gender equality over the past decade. That said, concerns have been raised about recent setbacks attributed to the on-going financial crisis and austerity measures.

Even if and when the good economic times return, neutrality is not going to work in this country. Expressive dolls might catch on, but the highly sexist Portuguese language is surely going to scupper unisexism.

It doesn’t make much sense to monolingual English speakers, but Portuguese nouns are either masculine or feminine - or in some cases bisexual, so to speak. The word ‘sex’ is itself masculine (sexo) with no feminine equivalent. A ‘journalist,’ whether a man or a woman, is always feminine (jornalista). The word for all sorts of people can sexually change depending on who it is describing (doutor / doutora, amigo / amiga). And just to make life a little more multifarious, any accompanying adjectives must agree with the gender of the noun.

Because of this linguistic complication, the equality focus in Portugal will probably remain on such matters as closing pay disparities (at present women doing similar work earn on average 30% less) and increasing the percentage of female members of parliament (currently just under 30%).

Among the other niggling imbalances, at last count more than 81% of Portuguese women do the laundry, 74% prepare the meals, nearly 66% wash the dishes and 63% take care of the house cleaning on their own. Men only shine when it comes to chores such as house repairs (60%), administrative tasks (41%) and shopping (39%).

Eradicating inequality in Portugal may not need legislation or feminist campaigns. It is happening naturally. Far fewer girls than boys are dropping out of school nowadays. Once largely illiterate and confined to the kitchen, women are well outstripping men in gaining university degrees and positions in traditionally male-dominated professions such as medicine and law.

The English word ‘idiot’ is almost the same in Portuguese (idiota). It is feminine and there is no masculine alternative. That is definitely going to have to change.