Coastal crisis looming

Latest estimates warn that many coastal cities, towns, villages and resorts in mainland Portugal are likely to become increasingly vulnerable to flooding or total destruction by sea levels that are rising far faster than expected.

The latest evaluation of data on rising sea levels has tripled previous estimates of vulnerability in coastal areas around the world.

An analysis published by the international scientific journal Nature Communications predicts that the lives of hundreds of millions of people in low-lying coastal areas could be drastically affected if greenhouse gas emissions are not radically curtailed to prevent global warming increasing to an unmanageable height by 2050.

Even though scientific information is not always correct and remains open to review based on new hard evidence, the latest sea-level predictions are alarming.

They indicate that up to 340 million people are currently living on land below projected flood levels for 2050, and that by the end of the century the number will  have reached 630 million.

It’s being emphasised that translating sea-level projections into potential exposure of populations is critical for coastal planning and for assessing the costs of failure to act.

Scientists say that the rate of sea-level rise has accelerated year after year since the mid-1960s when parts of the world’s oceans began to expand, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere, because of saltwater absorbing more heat.

The average sea-level rise has quickened since the mid-1990s, particularly in the last two decades, probably due to ever-faster ice loss in Greenland and Antarctica.

Another  study, conducted by University of Lisbon researchers, has noted that  hundreds of thousands of people living in coastal areas in mainland Portugal are involved in all sorts of high economic  activities, and that a great many  infrastructures will have to be adapted and protected from extreme storms as well as natural  sea level rise.

To develop climate change adaptation strategies, say the authors of the study, a reliable and accurate assessment of the physical vulnerability to rising sea levels is crucial.

In line with a European Union directive, potential hazards along the coast of mainland Portugal have been evaluated for the years 2025, 2050, and 2100, taking into consideration different sea level scenarios.

The overwhelming scientific evidence seems clear: humanity and many other forms of life on our planet are facing devastation, if not eventual extinction, unless greenhouse gas emissions are severely limited – and soon.

The climate of the world has been changing since the beginning of time, but the global warming that has been intensifying in recent decades is believed to be unprecedented and the cause not only of rising sea levels and flooding, but of extreme  conditions such as ruinous wildfires, storms, heatwaves  and droughts.

Overall, the situation is becoming increasingly complex involving a range of difficult issues for individual countries, including endangered island nations.

Apart from enlightening research work, remarkably little has been achieved since the historic Paris Agreement signed in 2016 to prevent the looming crisis.

The lengthy COP 25 event in Madrid that concluded at the end of last week having achieved little, was the 25^th annual climate change conference organised by the United Nations. Substantial disagreements on curbing greenhouse gases remain and it was left to an outspoken sixteen-year-old to denounce pledges by leading political and business leaders as hollow, deceptive and based on “clever accounting and creative PR”.

 At least UN Secretary-General and former Portuguese Prime Minister António Guterres seemed to be in harmony with Greta Thunberg and millions of protesting schoolchildren around the world when he told the Madrid conference that the planet is close to “the point of no return”.

Agreement on fully cooperative action, especially among the wealthiest and biggest polluting nations, is expected to be crucial at COP 26, which will be held in November 2020 in Glasgow.

Press reviews so far this year

 The eyes of the world on Portugal

Portugal has been much in the international news this year and most of the reports in the major papers have been positive.

When Portugal was rated number three in this year’s Global Peace Index, published annually by the Australia-based Institute for Economics and Peace, the Sydney Morning Herald was naturally among those quick off the mark to list the results. 

While noting that Portugal was up one place from last year and now third behind Iceland and New Zealand, the newspaper quoted the institute’s founder as saying that of the 163 countries monitored over the past decade, 80 had become more peaceful while 83 had become less so.

The Washington Times had to admit that the United States had dropped four places since last year and was now rated 128th in the global index.

October’s general election in Portugal was extensively covered and, even though Prime Minister António Costa’s party failed to win an outright majority, the Guardian pointed out that the Socialists’ victory cemented modest gains across the European Union for the centre-left, which has suffered a disastrous few years of fallout since the 2008 financial crisis.

The Financial Times emphasised that the re-election of Prime Minister Costa was  the latest sign of a resurgence among Europe’s traditional social democratic parties following worries for the centre-left in Denmark, Spain, Finland and Sweden.

“In Portugal it’s heaven. The rest of Europe has gone crazy” made a catchy headline in the Sunday Times. It was referring partly to the fact that the global financial crisis had brought Portugal to its knees, yet a decade later the country was booming thanks to a left-wing government.

The paper went on to quote Portugal’s Finance Minister Mário Centeno as claiming: “We’re growing faster than all average-sized countries in Europe”.

Various editions of Forbes Magazine have been raving about the Algarve as one of the best places in the world to retire to and Lisbon as one of the best places to invest in property.

An Irish Independent journalist commented that 50 km west of Faro, “popular resorts give way to crumbling, iron-stained cliffs and expensive villas constructed on land now protected  from further development by strict planning regulations”.

Bloomberg had plenty to say about property and declared that Portugal was Europe’s hottest property market but that it was getting too hot for some buyers. It attributed this to Portugal sticking to its golden visa programme even though locals are being squeezed.

An article in the New York Times focused on the Alentejo region and in particular the village of Melides, which is being transformed “as a wave of super affluent Europeans — artists, bankers, actors and sports stars — have discovered this extraordinarily beautiful spot”.

The paper went on to tell its readers that Melides: “happens to sit in the middle of a 40-mile stretch of nearly untouched Atlantic Ocean beaches, and at the edge of hundreds of square miles of cork oak fields, vineyards and rice fields”. Melides and the rest of the Alentejo coast, it said, is what St. Tropez used to be in the 1950s, “before Brigitte Bardot, or Ibiza  –  before the first wave of summer partyers ever heard of the Mediterranean hot spot”.

The Wall Street Journal came up with another secret hideaway for the elite: Comporta in the municipality of Alcácer in the district of Setúbal. Apparently it has been attracting vacationing royalty, politicians and celebrities, but for decades this 18-mile stretch of coastline has remained largely undeveloped. The paper reckons that international developers are aiming to capitalise on the area’s growing popularity by launching new resort and residential projects.

Tourism for ordinary folk with tighter budgets has also taken up a lot of newspaper space this year.  All-inclusive holidays have become increasingly popular, especially in the Algarve.

“All-in on the Algarve proves to be easy-going family fun”, according to the travel section in the Times. It gushed about “sunshine, entertainment on tap and no money headaches” on an all-inclusive visits. 

A couple of years ago the Boston Globe ran a story explaining why Portugal was such a hot holiday destination: “Relatively affordable with fascinating history and even a little Harry Potter must-visit mystique, is why this tiny country is suddenly on everyone’s lips”.

Holiday recommendations have been just as enthusiastic this year in other papers. For example,  “Golden beaches, low prices. Portugal's mostr beautiful seaside destinations for a final of summer, made a helpful headline in the  Daily Telegraph.

A seven night, half-board B&B offer at £416 per person was on offer in the Belfast Telegraph, which waxed lyrical about the Algarve’s coast and country, described the region as one of the most popular holiday destinations in Europe, with modern resorts offering every amenity a holidaymaker could wish for, as well as historic washed towns and fishing ports, full of tradition and atmosphere.

If they didn’t already know it, Belfast readers learned that resorts here offer “an abundance of great bars, shops, cafés and restaurants, while trips to colourful local markets provide an entertaining and rewarding pastime. With warm sunshine”.

Summer is the ideal time for most holidaymakers to enjoy this most appealing and lively destination, but the Irish Independent had some other timely advice: it’s good to visit the Algarve out of season for those who seek tranquillity. For one thing, it’s easy to hire a car “unhindered by August’s intense heat and traffic gridlock”.

The Mail Online travel section suggested that holidaymakers “savour the Algarve at its authentic best, from sensational seafood to some of Europe's best coastal walks”.

A guide in the Toronto Globe and Mail rated all parts of Portugal north to south as “a foodie’s paradise” and went into detail why.

Occasionally, foreign newspapers quite correctly come up with stories involving serious misadventure or crime in this country, but the Scotsman ran a remarkably positive article on drug addiction, entitled “Why Scotland can ill afford to ignore Portugal’s ground-breaking war on drugs”. The award-winning columnist wrote that it was the lack of moral judgment, even more than the headline-grabbing decriminalisation, that defined Portugal’s much-lauded drugs policy.

The gist of her article was that, as the country with the highest number of drugs deaths in the EU, Scotland is desperate for answers  –  and perhaps Portugal can provide some of them. 

Oh, and by the way, the Straits Times in faraway Singapore was one of the highly reputable newspapers to remind readers in October that 34-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo had just scored his 700th goal in a dazzling career. Never mind that Portugal lost the game 2-1.

*****

Portugal staying on course

The centuries-old Anglo-Portuguese alliance is sure to continue even though the United Kingdom looks like it will soon be saying farewell to Portugal and the other 26 member states of the European Union.

Generally regarded as the world’s oldest alliance still in force, it was signed in 1386 between the Kingdom of Portugal and the Kingdom of England. The name “United Kingdom” only came into being centuries later.  

Nowadays, however, the United Kingdom is far from united – especially politically – and it also looks like downsizing in the not too distant future.

The Brexit debacle seems likely to result not just in the UK’s departure from the European Union but also in the departure of Scotland and Northern Ireland from the UK.

In the 2016 “remain or leave” referendum, a majority in both Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU. 

Infuriated by the attitude of the London-based parliament, the Scottish National Party is fast gearing up for a second referendum on Scottish independence.

In Northern Ireland the demographics indicate that a small but growing majority of the population are in favour of quitting the UK and uniting with the Republic of Ireland. 

Another group of people who look like opting out of the UK are many of the Portuguese immigrants who live there. Portugal wants them back home.

The percentage of Portuguese citizens living abroad is one of the highest in the world and a lot of them are young. So Portugal has one of the lowest birth rates in the world and is struggling economically with an aging population.

Many skilled and unskilled working Portuguese emigrated during the debt crisis and the harsh austerity inflicted on the country between 2011 and 2014.  They left because unemployment was so high, wages were so low and the future looked so bleak.

While Portuguese emigrants are happy with conditions in a number of foreign countries both inside and outside the EU, the bitter internal squabbling about Brexit over the past three years has created worrying uncertainties among working people and their families in the UK, as well as those back home relying on remittances. 

But over the same period, Portugal’s gross domestic product has rebounded to pre-crisis levels and unemployment has dropped.  Nonetheless, even though the economic situation and employment opportunities have greatly improved, not all emigrants want to return.

By way of encouragement, the previous Socialist government introduced incentives such cash grants and tax breaks.  Company directors hope this will help fill a serious shortage of specialist staff in virtually all business sectors.

  

So concerned is Prime Minister António Costa that during the recent formal inauguration of the Socialist Party’s second term in government he announced that demographic sustainability in this country was one of his top priorities.

Tourism has been buoying the Portuguese economy in recent years and British holidaymakers are expected to continue flooding in regardless of the eventual outcome of Brexit.

  

Some British residents have already sold up and returned to the UK, while others are holding their breath despite assurances from both the Portuguese and British governments that they will continue to be welcome here.

Uncertainties about continued residency or moving to Portugal will persist until the whole Brexit mess is sorted out. 

Meanwhile, Portugal is staying on course. Its centuries-old alliance will remain in place regardless of Brexit, as will its staunch loyalty to the European Union. 

 

Socialists in compromise talks

As the centre-left Socialist victory in the October 6 general election fell short of producing an outright majority government, caretaker Prime Minister António Costa is considering practical options.

 Costa has ruled out the written alliance the Socialists had for the last four years with the far-left.

The Socialists may be able to arrange a less formal pact on specific issues with either or both the Left Bloc and the Communist Party.

The absence of a formal alliance with the far-left could also make it easier for the centre-left to join forces with their old mainstream rivals, the centre-right.

Uncertainty exists but compromises seem to be on the cards and inter-party discussions are presently ongoing.

This will be good news to Socialists in other countries in the European Union that have been sidelined in recent years, particularly by right-wing Populists.

Meanwhile, international investors do not seem worried about Portugal’s current political uncertainty.

Age-old miracle still attracts millions

While the number of practising Catholics in Portugal and elsewhere in Europe is in decline, the Sanctuary of Fátima remains one of the most visited Catholic places of pilgrimage in the world. Pilgrims will be pouring in this weekend for the 102nd anniversary of the “Miracle of the Sun”.  

According to Sanctuary statistics, the annual number of visitors to Fátima over the past ten years has fluctuated between 3 million and 6 million.  The centenary year, 2017, exceeded all expectations with 9.4 million pilgrims from 109 countries.

Fátima attracts the largest number of visitors around 13 May and 13 October, the first and last dates in the six successive months in 1917 when three children tending sheep claimed to have witnessed apparitions of the Virgin Mary.

It was on 13 October that a miracle is said to have occurred at the time and place prophesied to the children by the Virgin Mary. The event occurred before an estimated crowd of 70,000.  

Many believers consider that the way in which the sun whirled and seemed to defy all cosmic law was one of the most outstanding miracles of the 20th century if not the entire history of Christendom. 

Among the crowd on that day there were contradicting opinions about what actually happened, with some people saying they did not see the sun do anything unusual at all. 

Since then, psychologists, meteorologists and other scientists have offered plenty of non-supernatural explanations, including the power of suggestion and mass hallucination.

Unlike at Lourdes in France, the Sanctuary of Fátima does not actively encourage the idea of miracle cures for the seriously ill. An official spokesperson explained: “Fátima's spirituality is very much centred on prayer, conversion and reparation, with particular attention to prayer for the Pope and peace in the world”. 

In May 2017 Pope Francis visited the Sanctuary to attend the centenary celebrations and canonise the two shepherd children, Jacinta and her brother Francisco, who died of influenza two years after their visions. 

Portuguese make up the majority of the pilgrims each year, but this October registered groups will be coming from other predominantly Catholic countries such as Italy, Poland and France, and from countries such as Azerbaijan, Indonesia and Senegal, where the overwhelming majority of the populations are Muslim.

Sanctuary officials have confirmed that this weekend they will also be welcoming pilgrims from Sri Lanka, where most citizens are Buddhists, and from South Korea, where all the major religions co-exist but most people have no formal affiliation with any. South Korea is the fastest growing Asian country represented at the Sanctuary, with about 250 South Koreans in seven groups having announced many weeks ago their planned presence this weekend.

In recent times the distribution of the world’s 1.3 billion Catholics has been changing significantly. About 80% of Portugal's population are nominally Catholic, but increasingly empty pews and closing churches indicate a huge decline in the numbers attending Mass – thought to be down to about 18% of the population and also falling steeply elsewhere in western and southern Europe. 
  

Europe as a whole is now home to just 24% of the world’s Catholics, compared to about 65% in 1917. Where Catholicism still has a strong hold are parts of Africa, and Central and South America. In Asia, Catholicism is flourishing in the Indian states of Goa and Kerala; and in the Philippines, 86% of the population are Catholic.

Catholicism has been the dominant religion among the Portuguese since Roman times and even through the centuries of Moorish occupation. The Church, along with monarchies, continued to control the nation well after the 18th century Age of Enlightenment which advocated individual liberty and eradication of religious authority. 

 “The time has come for people of reason to say enough is enough”, says Prof. Richard Dawkins, the outspoken Oxford University evolutionary biologist. “Religious faith discourages independent thought, it’s divisive and it’s dangerous”, he says.

Like Dawkins, many contemporary atheists and agnostics condemn the routine ideological indoctrination of the young from an early age, particularly by Catholics and Muslims. They regard such indoctrination as a form of totalitarianism based on a collection of made-up writings that are anything but the “Word of God”. 

A close read of the original story of Fátima, say the sceptics, must persuade all but the most blinkered dogmatists to question the mindset of the child visionaries. It is surely obvious that particularly the two highly imaginative girls, Lúcia and Jacinta, aged ten and seven, were highly imaginative and utterly devoted to angels and the image of a person they identified as Our Lady of the Rosary who became popularly known as Our Lady of Fátima. 

Despite the hopes of secularists, religion is not going away any time soon. About 2,700 different religions exist today to which 84% of humanity is affiliated. Christianity has 2.1 billion followers. Islam, with 1.6 billion, is growing at a considerably faster rate and by 2050 its numbers are expected to equal those of Christianity.

The gods and goddesses of ancient Greece, such as Zeus, Apollo, Poseidon, Athena, Aphrodite and Nemesis, have long passed into mythology. To sceptics, Our Lady of Fátima is already a myth, but to the pilgrims visiting the Sanctuary this weekend she is very real.  

Part of the crowd at Fátima on 13 October 1917

Fátima Basilica  2019

The deepening crisis of dementia

Dementia is a progressive illness that has preoccupied philosophers and physicians for many centuries, yet there's still no known cure and it continues to afflict an increasing number of people in Portugal and around the globe.

The World Health Organization (WHO) defines dementia as a syndrome in which there is deterioration in memory, thinking, behaviour and the ability to perform everyday activities.

About 50 million people in the world have dementia and there are as many as 10 million new cases expected each year. Although it mostly involves the elderly, dementia is not an inevitable part of growing old.

The effect of aging on human cognitive processes was the subject of much philosophical deliberation in ancient Greek and Roman times. It was studied by Pythagoras in the 6th century BC and by Hippocrates, the “father of medicine”, who lived between the 4th and 3rd centuries BC. Plato and Aristotle both had profound but often conflicting views on the aging process and cognitive decline, though Plato carried on writing up to the grand old age of 80 and Aristotle to around 62 in an era when life expectancy was about 30.

The Roman philosopher Cicero in the 1st century BC put forward the reasonable theory that cognitive decline could be offset by vigorous mental activity. 

During the Middle Ages, religion stifled medical studies, and renewed efforts were not sparked again until the 17th and 18th centuries, in the “Age of Enlightenment”.

The notion that those with severe mental problems were possessed by demons and should be locked up in lunatic asylums or even executed persisted into the 20th century, despite the humanitarian attitudes of such specialists as the French physician Philippe Pinel and the pioneering work of German psychiatrist Alois Alzheimer.

Dementia is a generic term for a group of related illnesses, the commonest being the one named after the German psychiatrist. Vascular dementia is the second most common.

Mental illness is taken much more seriously by the general public nowadays than it used to be. Those who scornfully used the term “bird-brain” probably didn’t realise it was they themselves who were being stupid. Birds have very complex brains. 

The cells in a bird’s brain interactively organise with extraordinary precision how the bird communicates with other members of the same species through characteristic calls and song, how it finds a suitable nesting site either singly or in colonies, and how it manages to fly individually or in flocks across unfamiliar terrain. 

Some species manage to migrate thousands of kilometres and turn up at just the right time to prepare for breeding in the very same spot they used the previous year.  This and much more in each bird is dependent on one or two billion brain cells called neurons. 

A honey bee has less than a million neurons in its brain, which measures just one cubic millimetre but operates far faster than the most advanced computers. The neuron cells allow bees to stay in touch with one another using their own distinctive language, remember where to find their favourite pollen and display extraordinary aerial agility.

We humans pride ourselves on being the most intelligent of mammals because of the relative size of our brain and the presence of some 1o0 billion neurons in the frontal part known as the cerebral cortex.

Several types of neurons work in conjunction with other cells to send and receive electrochemical nerve impulses that transmit with lightning speed all sorts of messages to different parts of the body. In short, neurons are the key to everything we think, sense and do from birth to death. 

Under normal conditions, our neurons continue to function well into old age, but abnormal events such as strokes may kill certain neurons, with serious and irreparable consequences – including the onset of dementia.  

While the causes of particular and sometimes mixed forms of dementia may be somewhat different, the effects are rather similar: loss of short-term memory, confusion when trying to carry out basic daily tasks, inability to solve problems, misplacing or losing small items, not always recognising friends, not remembering names, uncertainty about time and place, trouble understanding straightforward events. 

Such frailties usually worsen with time and even if the progression is slowed by medications it may be accompanied by increased anxiety, depression and aggression.  Except in the early stages of dementia, these symptoms are likely to be more severe than having “senior moments” such as making bad judgements now and again, occasionally forgetting an appointment, getting the time or the day wrong but getting it right a little later, temporarily struggling to come up with the right word. 

It's estimated that in ancient times only 3% of the population in Greece or the Roman Empire lived to the age of 65. Since the early 20th century, life expectancy globally has risen dramatically due to the advances in medical treatment. According to WHO figures from 2018, average life expectancy is Portugal is now 78.3 for men and 84.5 for women.  

The main lifecycle problems in Portugal currently are that this country has one of the lowest birth rates in the world and state social care is extremely underfunded while professional private care is expensive if not unaffordable. 

In seeking a second term in the 6 October general election, the popular Socialist prime minister, António Costa, has put both of these matters high on his campaign agenda.

As the size of our aging community rapidly grows, it is encouraging that medical technology is improving internationally and understanding of all forms of dementia is increasing.

Meanwhile, it is far from easy for those with dementia, their partners, families, friends and carers to cope, but cope we all must do as best we can.

Confidence within the EU increasing despite Brexit

Support for key perceptions of the European Union is showing a strong increase among the majority of EU citizens despite  –  or perhaps partly because of –  Britain’s shambolic efforts to leave.

The overall approval rating among respondents in a survey conducted in all 28 member states before the European parliamentary elections in May this year showed a peak last recorded between the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and approval of the Maastricht Treaty in 1992. 

Since autumn 2018, the proportion of respondents with a positive image of the EU has increased in 23 member states, including Portugal, where it has climbed seven percentage points and now stands at 60%. 

The findings of an EU Barometer post-election survey published last week show “the best results in five years”. Many people now trust the EU more than their own national government or parliament. This trust level is topped by 72% of respondents in Lithuania and 68% in Denmark.  Portugal, with 57%, is sixth on the trust table.

A strong sense of optimism prevails across Europe, most notably in Ireland, where 85% of those questioned felt upbeat about the future of the eurozone.

Within the eurozone, confidence in the euro has weighed in at a new record high of 76%; and in the EU as a whole remains at 62%. 

A large majority of respondents (81%) agree with the free movement that allows EU citizens to live, work, study or do business in any country they choose within the Union.

Significant variations emerge when respondents were questioned about the situation of their own national economy. Almost half of the respondents are happy with the situation:  e.g. Luxembourg (94%), Denmark (91%), Netherlands (90%), Germany (83%) and Sweden (80%). The results for Ireland and the United Kingdom were 75% and 41%, respectively. 

Respondents from several other countries, however, regard their national economy as “bad”; especially in Greece, where an approval rating of only 7% was registered. The equivalent in France is 29% and in Croatia, Bulgaria and Italy the percentage is in the lower twenties. 

Also in the recent survey, many other interesting statistics emerged from face-to-face interviews with around 27,500 citizens in the 28 member states. 

The number one concern remains immigration (34%), although this has dropped six percentage points since last year's survey. Meanwhile there has been a six percentage point increase, to 22%, in what has become the number two concern: climate change.

It’s beyond the scope of EU Barometer surveys to speculate on any correlation between migration and climate change, but it’s likely that the widespread movement of people in the years ahead will be closely related to global warming. Well-documented rising sea levels, devastating flooding, more common extreme weather conditions and ultimate desertification may alter or destroy traditional food production and fundamental lifestyles to the point where there will be no feasible alternative to large-scale migration, not only from Africa into Europe but also from southern Europe northwards.  

The European Union has been in the forefront of deliberations on these dangers, with the Paris Agreement and more recent deliberations in Bonn and Geneva. 

All in all, in the wake of two devastating world wars and a global financial crisis, there is a sense of togetherness in Europe that may long outlive the self-indulgent determination of those in Britain who want out – deal or no deal – on 31 October.