World populations coming and going

 

The global population as of last Tuesday, according to the United Nations, reached 8 billion and is still rising. On the same day, Portugal’s population was said to have been 10,126,454 and falling.

 

United Nations statistics show that in 1950 the global population was only 2.6 billion.  In 2011 it had risen to 7 billion. It is predicted to reach 9.7 billion in 2050 and 11 billion in 2100, catastrophic climate change and wars permitting.

 

For now, 61% of the global population live in Asia, 17% in Africa, 10% in Europe, over 5% in South America and under 5% in North America.

 

China is the country with the largest population (1.4 billion), but India is expected to overtake it next year. Far behind are the United States, (332 million) Indonesia (276.5 million) and Brazil (214 million).

 

The former Portuguese colony of Angola in south-western Africa, with 34 million inhabitants, has the third fastest growing population in the world with 3.4% per year.

 

Germany is the most populated of the European Union’s 27 member states with well over 83 million. Portugal is by no means among the lowest in the EU and has numbers close to those in Sweden.

 

 Portugal’s population has shrunk by 2% in the last decade and it continues to decline because of the low birth rate and the high number of young people emigrating to other European and North American countries.

 

In 2020 the birth rate in Portugal was 1.40 per woman. So the birth rate has indeed been low and it has been low and declining in many other places too. The reasons are said to include women’s empowerment in education and the workforce, lower child mortality and the increased cost of raising children.

 

People are on the move, both inside and outside their country of birth. The number of people leaving Portugal of late has been about 80,000 a year. Most have been seeking further education or better economic opportunities. Similar reasons across the world have pushed people into moving from rural areas into cities. It is expected that 70% of the world’s population will live in cities by 2045.

 

They are plenty of advantages in living in large urban areas such as Lisbon and Porto with populations of 518,000 and 250,000 respectively, or in mega-cities such as New York with more than 8 million  inhabitants and London, with more than 9 million. One of the big disadvantages of many large urban areas is poor air quality and its impact on health.

 

Climate change, conflict and political instability are expected to cause much more international migration in the coming years.  The flood of refugees from Ukraine is likely to be replicated from African nations if they are made almost uninhabitable by extreme heat, drought and resulting desertification.

 

The relatively well-off foreigners who have moved to reside in Portugal have done so mainly because they are made welcome by friendly people in a peaceful and beautiful country with a Mediterranean climate featuring mild winters.

 

Expatriate residents here account for 6.4% of the total population with about 184,000 Brazilians and 46,000 British. Many foreigners in the last two years have come from a number of other EU countries as well as from Ukraine.

 

The percentage of people aged 65 and over in Portugal has been increasing and last year reached more than 23%. The elderly are becoming more numerous is in many countries as life expectancy rises. Life expectancy in Portugal has risen from about 60 in the mid-1950s to a little over 82 nowadays. This trend may continue globally, but it depends very much on overall human behaviour.

 

Because of such factors as man-made greenhouse gas emissions and violent conflicts, about 700 million people or 9% of the global population are estimated to be living in extreme poverty, that’s to say on less that €2 a day.

 

One of the worst affected places is the large island state of Madagascar situated off the east coast of Africa. People there have long been experiencing desperate hardship because of poor administration, droughts, insufficient irrigation and drinking water, crop failures and criminal gangs stealing cattle and commodities.

 

According to the UN’s World Food Programme, as of the middle of last month 8.8 million people across Madagascar (about 33% of the entire population) are suffering from acute food shortages. That’s one million more than just three months ago. Further deterioration is expected between next month and March next year when two million more people are likely to be going hungry.

 

In his book Origins, a deeply detailed account of the evolution of all species of life from geological, paleontological and biological perspectives, Frank H.T. Rhodes concludes “A single species – ours - now has the capacity to influence or disrupt not only the natural rhythm, distribution and future patterns of life on Earth, but even its survival. In the billions of years on the planet that is a unique and sobering capacity.”

 

As far back as 1929, between the First and Second World Wars, the neurologist and founder of psychoanalysis, Sigmund Freud, wrote at the end of his book Civilisation and its Discontents: “The fateful question for the human species seems to me to be whether and to what extent their cultural development will succeed in mastering the disturbance in their communal life by the human instinct of aggression and self destruction.... Men have gained control over the forces of nature to such an extent that with their help they would have no difficulty in exterminating one another to the last man.”

 

That is as true now as it was then.  

 

 

 

The Lord Lucan mystery deepens

Almost half a century after the mysterious disappearance of John Bingham, the 7^th Earl of Lucan, best known as Lord Lucan, two new pieces of intriguing information have emerged about his presence in the Algarve.

He is said to have vanished without trace in November 1974, the day after he allegedly killed his children’s nanny and brutally attacked his estranged wife with an iron bar in his home in Belgravia, central London.

The crimes were investigated by London’s Metropolitan Police who then held a cold case review in 2004, the findings of which had never been made public until some details were published last week by the Daily Mail.

The Met had apparently tracked down and interviewed a woman who claimed she had seen Lord Lucan at a party in the Algarve just weeks after his disappearance.

If indeed Lord Lucan was in the Algarve in late 1974, this would have been the first and only sighting of him anywhere after his alleged crimes against the nanny, Sandra Rivett and his estranged wife, Veronica.

What we know for sure, as we revealed in 2017, is that Lord Lucan made a very private visit to the Algarve with his three children the summer before the violence in his Belgravia home.

The 1973 visit was confirmed by Lord Lucan’s wife, who believed he had committed suicide after the attacks. Lady Lucan, then officially entitled the Dowager Countess of Lucan, told me: “My late husband visited the Algarve with our three children, but I know nothing more about the visit.”

Lord Lucan’s presence in 1973 was confirmed in some detail by the person who arranged his visit, Liz Brewer, the former debutante who, after starting her business career in the Algarve in the 1960s, became an internationally renowned organiser of social events involving famous personalities.  She arranged Lord Lucan’s visit with the London-based Algarve Agency run by her then partner Neville Roberts. Lord Lucan, known to friends as ‘Lucky’, used to frequently walk past the agency’s office on his way to the Claremont Club, a top gambling venue owned by one of his best friends, John Aspinall.  

Very few people had known of Lord Lucan’s visit in 1973 until Liz Brewer revealed in 2017 that he had stayed for a few weeks with another of his best friends, Bill Shand-Kydd, Bill’s wife Christina and their two children, in their large holiday home located between Albufeira and Quinta do Saudade.

Liz Brewer said she spent much time showing Lord Lucan around Algarve beauty spots, including some of its loveliest beaches. She found him a very personable man.

Just recently, Liz Brewer recalled that another very famous person stayed with the Shand-Kydds at the same time as Lord Lucan. It was Diana Spencer, a distant relative of Christina who was a sister of Veronica. Diana, who came to the Algarve with her younger brother, turned 12 that summer. It was eight years before she married Prince Charles, now King Charles lll.

Lord Lucan’s visit was said to have been a special birthday visit, but it is not clear whose birthday was being celebrated. Diana’s birthday was on July 1. Christina’s was on August 3. Perhaps the celebratory visit was for both.

That aside, Liz Brewer was not surprised by the claim that a woman, who has not been named, saw Lucan at a party in the Algarve in 1974.  She rejects the allegation that he killed the nanny and battered his wife. She does not believe the popular theory that he committed suicide by jumping off a ferry into the English Channel. She thinks it quite plausible that with the help of some of his many wealthy friends and his knowledge of the Algarve, he came here and then made his way to Africa. Portugal and its former African colony, Angola, were in turmoil in 1974, the year of the ‘Carnation Revolution’.

Liz Brewer and others, including Lord Lucan’s younger brother, Hugh Bingham, said it might have been relatively easy for Lord Lucan to move to Morocco and then head south to live a new life, perhaps in one of the homes in South Africa owned by friends. 

Hugh Bingham, who died in South Africa in 2018, believed his brother probably first fled to Portugal because he had little chance of a fair trial in England. 

Unsubstantiated sightings of Lord Lucan have been reported from as far apart as Ireland, Australia and New Zealand. The latest claim that at the age of 98 he is still living in Australia as a Buddhist monk seems unlikely. While one facial recognition expert has little doubt, most analysts reject the notion.  

So the Lord Lucan mystery, like that of Madeleine McCann, remains unsolved, at least until a sure sighting or other evidence emerges.   

 

 

 

Brazil to help with the climate crisis

Brazilians in Portugal, the largest expatriate population here, may still have mixed feelings about the narrow victory in the presidential election back home, but Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa and most of the delegates now in Egypt for the United Nations COP 27 climate summit are pleased at the outcome.

President-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, popularly known as Lula, has promised to help save the Amazon rainforest, which the far-right incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro has allowed to badly deteriorate. Almost a million square kilometres of the rainforest have gone. That’s about a fifth of its original forested area.

Apart from providing home to a vast number of different species of life, the trees of the Amazon help stabilise the climate by releasing 20 billion tonnes of water into the atmosphere each day. This plays a key role in carbon and oxygen cycles.

Brazil has an outsized influence on the climate in that degradation of the rainforest means that it is liable to release huge amounts of carbon dioxide, the primary greenhouse gas emitted. The Amazon stores enough carbon, which, if fully released, would be equivalent to an estimated 730 billion metric tonnes of carbon dioxide. That’s enough to account for 20-years of global emissions at current rates.

“Brazil is ready to resume its leading role in the fight against the climate crisis, protecting all our biodiversity, especially the Amazon forest,” the centre-left Lula, has said.

Bloomberg Green, a leading journalistic outlet on climate change, notes that Bolsonaro has significantly undermined environmental regulations and accelerated the destruction of the Amazon in large part by allowing illegal deforestation for cattle ranching, mining and other business purposes. Greenhouse gas emissions have risen in tandem

It remains to be seen what Lula will be able to accomplish when he officially takes up the presidency on 1^st January, but climate advocates certainly see his election as a move in a better direction.

“This election was huge for the future of the planet and for the future of the Amazon. No question,” said Samantha Gross, director of the Energy Security and Climate Initiative at the non-profit Brookings Institution based in Washington D.C.

If the planet gets too hot, the world largest rainforest in the Amazon will be an extraordinary tipping point, vulnerable to unstoppable conversion from forest to savannah through a process called ‘dieback’, ‘according to a recent paper in the journal Science.

Accelerated deforestation could trigger sooner rather than later a tipping point that releases countless and calamitous quantities of that stored carbon.

Lula is about to update his country’s intended contribution to the formal climate pledges made during the landmark COP 21 Paris Agreement signed by 196 countries in 2015.

President Joe Biden and 17 other top-level United States officials are attending COP 27, a clear indication that the world’s biggest greenhouse gas emitter is going to do more this time than simply make pledges it fails to honour.

United Nations Secretary-General and former Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Guterres has said that rich nations must sign an “historic pact” with poor countries over the consequences of global warming or “we will be doomed”.

Meanwhile, the 40,000 heads of state, government ministers, executives, scientists and activists in deep discussions in Sharm El Sheik will be engulfed in feelings ranging all the way from fatalism to guarded optimism.

COP 27 must ensure firm action

Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, COP 27 conference venue

The United Nations COP 27 climate conference, which starts at the end of this week, could be of pivotal importance to the entire planet and of special significance to Portugal.

Portugal is doing all the right things to limit global warming, but it remains highly vulnerable because of what much bigger nations are not doing.

The United States, China and India, the countries creating the highest levels of ruinous greenhouse gas emissions, are not honouring their pledges at past UN climate conferences. This year, China even pulled out of co-operative talks with the US about how to limit global warming to 1.5°C.

Former Portuguese Prime Minister and currently serving his second term as Secretary-General of the United Nations Antonio Guterres, has said: “We are in a life-or-death struggle for our own safety today and our survival tomorrow.” 

He added that COP 27 must ensure sufficient action and not be just “another dead-end discussion.”

Attention on global warming has been distracted in many countries by the COVID pandemic, Russia’s war in Ukraine and crises centred on the cost of energy, food and maintaining health services. In Africa, it has been distracted by internal conflicts, poverty and starvation.

Some scientists believe it is already too late to stop global temperatures rising above the crucial 1.5°C or even 2°C levels to avoid catastrophe. Some are predicting that levels may rise by more than 4°C by the end of the century.

The whole subject will be debated again at the 27^th UN climate conference, which begins in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, next Sunday, November 6. It will continue for 12 days.

The many heads of state and government ministers, along with mayors, CEOs, climate scientists and activists attending, will not include Britain’s King Charles III or Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. They have opted out. Greta Thunberg says she will not be attending either, presumably because she doesn’t want to hear more blah, blah, blah.

Many young people from around the world, however, will be present and a special pavilion is being set up for them at the conference centre. For the first time, the European Union will also have its own pavilion at a COP meeting.

Europe is becoming hotter faster than almost any other region in the world. This year Portugal has experienced its hottest temperatures ever. They reached 46°C in a number of places and a record 47.5°C in the north-eastern Alentejo. There had been so little rain by late May that most of Portugal, north to south, suffered severe or extreme droughts. 

More is sure to come. Indeed, the next few years could to be much worse, meaning longer and increasingly intensive heat waves, wildfires, droughts, and flooding due to rising sea levels.  If so, the economic impact will be profound, particularly on the tourism and agriculture sectors.

The wildfire environmental and wildlife  destruction is worsened by low precipitation, which is predicted to drop by as much as 50% in summers, with temperatures topping 40°C becoming the norm. Sea levels will continue to rise along Portugal’s entire coastline, threatening some coastal cities, towns, villages and beaches with submersion.

The worrying health risks include a rising mortality rate among children and the elderly due to unbearable lengthy heat waves. The temperatures could also promote tropical diseases such as malaria.

Portugal is striving as best it can to help bring global warming under control, especially by increasing its use of hydroelectric, wind and solar power, thus reducing the need for fossil fuels. It is one of the leaders in Europe on this.

Hopefully, the COP 27 conference will successfully urge the world’s major nations to spend less time on hateful political wrangling and concentrate far more on the future of planet Earth.

 

 

British expats bewildered by chaos

Britain's new Prime Minister, 42-year-old Rishi Sunak

Many British expats in Portugal have been understandably angered and embarrassed by last week’s political and economic anarchy back home.

Respect for Britain’s government has plummeted across Europe, in the United States and elsewhere around the world, with people aghast at the frenzied turmoil within the UK’s ruling Conservative Party.

Some found the recent events to be farcical, even funny. But no, they were deadly serious and fully factual.

 Liz Truss was forced out of office as prime minister by her own party just 44 days after being enthusiastically voted in.

The damage was self-inflicted as she had made a total shambles of things by complicating an already dire financial situation in one of the world’s biggest economies.

The friend Truss chose as Chancellor of the Exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng, released a mini-budget that included the biggest tax cuts in half a century, which would have mainly benefitted the wealthier segments of British society.

Truss sacked him as the financial markets reacted. The pound nosedived in value, leading borrowing costs to shoot up.

Soaring interest rates threatened higher mortgage payments for millions of British citizens.

It took the International Monetary Fund to urgently point out that the planned tax cuts might stoke inflation.

The Bank of England felt obliged to take drastic measures, including buying an unlimited quantity of government bonds to protect the UK economy from crashing further.

Truss sacked her friend after he had been in the job for just 38 days and appointed a new chancellor, Jeremy Hunt.

As the fourth chancellor in four months, Hunt calmed the markets somewhat by completely overturning the planned tax cuts of his predecessor, which the PM had supported.

Having just claimed in the House of Commons that she was “a fighter not a quitter”, Truss quit and became by far the shortest serving prime minister in British history.

Aged just 47, Truss is now entitled to an annual public payment of £115,000. Many British pensioners feel outraged because of concerns about their own more modest public payments amid the cost of living crisis that has forced many working people into poverty.

Truss’ predecessor, Boris Johnson, who led Britain out of the European Union, was forced to resign in early July after a series of ‘Partygate’ scandals.

It beggared belief that  many Conservatives wanted Boris back after Truss resigned.

He flew home from a holiday in the Caribbean in the hope of regaining his position, despite being an obvious liar who is soon to be investigated for misleading members of parliament.  He declined to enter the leadership race just the night before this Monday’s deadline.

Meanwhile, the Labour Party, which is holding a big majority of support according to all opinion polls, demanded a general election giving the country, not just the Conservatives, the opportunity to choose the next prime minister. The muddled government ruled that out.

In the absence of any other viable contender as leader of the Conservative Party and prime minister, Rishi Sunak will now have to sort out the mess, including a £40 billion black hole in the economy, while the population are facing a booming recession at home plus a great loss to Britain’s reputation internationally.

British expats, for their own futures and those of family and friends here and in their homeland, are hoping for a rapid end to the current tumultuous uncertainly and a return to stability.

New air defence shield welcome

Although one of the least vulnerable countries in Europe to missile attacks from Russia, Portugal will be all the safer thanks to a new defence system initiated by Germany.

Fifteen countries have joined the proposed “European Sky Shield” that is to be set up using a common procurement of defence equipment. The system will enable the interception of any Russian cruise or ballistic missiles armed with conventional or nuclear warheads.

The co-operative arrangement comes at a time when the war in Ukraine is escalating and President Putin has made thinly veiled threats to use nuclear weapons against Europe and the United States.

The countries participating in the new shield project are Belgium, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and the United Kingdom. All are NATO members except Finland, which is still in the process of joining.

Defence ministers signed a letter of intent in Brussels last Thursday to provide what has been described as “a fully interoperable and seamlessly integrated system that will significantly improve NATO’s ability to defend against all air and missile threats.”

Furthermore, it will offer a multinational and multifaceted” approach, which will offer “a flexible and scalable” way for European countries to strengthen their defence in an efficient and cost-effective manner, according to a NATO statement. The system is expected to make use of a combination of Israeli, US and German missile interception equipment.

So far, neither Portugal nor Spain has been formally requested to participate in the project, presumably because of their relatively distant location, but Spain has said it would certainly consider doing so if asked. Portugal might do so too as it is well known to be an enthusiastically committed founder member of NATO. France and Poland have opted out as they have their own individual missile defence systems.

While less vulnerable than the countries on Europe’s eastern flank, Portugal will welcome the boost to European missile protection because of the potential threat to its Atlantic ports, or even a possible spread of nuclear fallout from the east.

Putin’s has said he is not bluffing in making his threats to go nuclear. His ability to do so with long-range missiles are being taken very seriously by all defence ministers and specialist think tanks in the West. The need for the shield comes at a time of growing desperation in the Kremlin, which is facing increasing gains by the Ukrainian forces and increasing anti-war protests at home. A concern is that Putin is being backed into a corner that may provoke extreme and maybe even  illogical panic action. That said, the West has made it absolutely clear that it is ready to make any appropriate response necessary.

Russia has already unleashed thousands of missiles against Ukraine. Last week in yet another alleged war crime, many rained down on civilian targets and critical energy infrastructures in cities across Ukraine.

Fatima miracle: fact or fiction?

A crowd, said to have numbered as many as 70,000, witnessed the so-called Miracle of the Sun above the village of Fatima in central Portugal on 13^th October 1917. But was it really a divine miracle, or is it all a bizarre myth?

The event occurred during the Second World War and just a few years before Russia formed the Soviet Union. The latter is of special relevance to the Fatima faithful because of Russia’s present war in Ukraine. The 1917 crowd gathered in response to a prophesy aired by three local shepherd children who claimed to have been in contact over the previous five months with the Virgin Mary, whom they referred to as Our Lady of Fatima or Our Lady of the Rosary. They said she had told them to pray for peace and that she would perform a miracle that October.

On a stormy, wet afternoon, many in the crowd (pictured below) said that for a period of about ten minutes the sun resembled a silver disc. It appeared to tremble, dance and zigzag down towards the Earth amid a vivid range of colours.

Scientists have always dismissed the notion that there was any unnatural solar activity. Noting that there were inconsistent and contradictory comments among the crowd, sceptics have suggested that believers had deceived themselves with wishful expectations.

The Catholic Church itself harboured doubts and it was not until 1930 that it was officially declared a miracle “worthy of belief.”

By that time Church and State in Portugal had been separated by a constitutional decree. It was during Portugal’s First Republic, which ran from 5^th October 1910 to May 1926. The State was fiercely critical of the Catholic Church, which had been the national religion with a huge following since the founding of the nation on 5^th October 1143. Governments during the First Republic would like to have eliminated it, but the Church found solace and strengthened resistance in the ever-increasing public following of the apparitions reported by the three shepherd children on the 13th of each month, May to October, 1917.

The separation of Church and State was further cemented into Portugal’s constitution in 1976, two years after the ‘Carnation Revolution’. The two have enjoyed a trouble-free relationship ever since. Modern governments have appreciated the economic contribution to tourism by the Sanctuary of Fatima, which each year attracts millions of pilgrims from around the world. The figure for the centenary year, 2017, reached 9.4 million from about 100 countries who came to the Sanctuary for prayer and to express adulation.   

As all pilgrims are aware, the Blessed Virgin is said to have entrusted the visionary children with three “secrets” one of which warned that communist Russia would “spread its errors” unless it was “consecrated to my immaculate heart.”

The eldest of the children, Lucia Santos, (pictured left below) said the request was repeated to her by the Virgin Mary in an appearance in 1929. Why a matter of such geopolitical importance had been revealed in the first place only to unschooled children, indoctrinated with Catholic dogma by their peasant mothers in the remote Portuguese countryside, may not bother Catholics, but Humanists put it all down to delusion.

The act of consecration became a highly controversial subject, especially among traditionalist Catholics who consider all the popes since the Second Ecumenical Council of the Vatican in the 1960s to be heretics. Three of these popes carried out consecrations without naming Russia. Only in March this year was the consecration carried out with the specific mention of Russia by Pope Francis. At the same time, the pontiff named Ukraine against which the Russians had launched their invasion one month earlier.

If the Miracle of the Sun and the Blessed Virgin’s wishes are not merely mythical, peace may at long last soon envelope the world, however unlikely that currently seems.

The Sanctuary of Fatima