VICTORY FOR CENTRE-RIGHT

 

The centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD), led by Luís Montenegro, won the most votes in Sunday’s parliamentary election, though not enough to form a stable government.

 

The centre-left Socialist Party (PS), led by Pedro Nuno Santos, finished second with 23%, just ahead of the far-right Chega party, led by Andre Ventura, which garnered a surprising 22.56%.

 

Chega emerged as the leading party in the Algarve and elsewhere across southern Portugal. It remains to be seen whether the Socialists will join the AD again in a coalition government, but neither of the centrist parties is likely to align with the populist right.

 

All 230 seats in the Assembly of the Republic were contested. The PS and Chega each secured 58 seats.

 

Centrist parties have dominated Portuguese politics since the 1974 revolution, which dramatically replaced the dictatorship with democracy. However, instability has been the norm for the past decade. The cost of living, housing shortages, and immigration are the main concerns among voters today. Another key issue is a lack of confidence in politicians.

 

There have been three governments in the past three years, each brought down by scandal and necessitating another snap election.

 

Prime Minister Montenegro was sworn in just over a year ago. His party formed a coalition with the PS Social Democrats and the CSD People’s Party. This was not expected to last long — and it didn’t.

 

Allegations against Prime Minister Montenegro concerning a conflict of interest involving his family’s business sparked a scandal. Montenegro denied the claims but lost a parliamentary confidence vote and was obliged to call another snap election. A previous scandal had brought down the Socialist government of António Costa.

 

These events have fuelled widespread public dissatisfaction with the ruling political class.

 

More than 10,850,000 Portuguese citizens were registered to vote in Sunday’s ballot, though a low turnout was expected.

 

Despite the fragility of recent governments, Portugal has outperformed most European countries in economic growth, run budget surpluses, and reduced its debt under both centre-left and centre-right administrations.

 

The future of major projects — such as lithium mining and the long-discussed privatisation of the TAP airline — could face further delays.

 

In foreign policy, the new government is expected to continue condemning Israel’s brutality in Gaza and Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Written by Len Port.

Edited by Catriona Anderson.

 

SNAP ELECTION EXPECTATIONS

Although somewhat overshadowed this week by the election of a new pope in Rome, Portugal’s politicians are campaigning for votes in the national election taking place on Sunday, 18 May.

There is an inevitability in the national election in that most votes will go to the two centrist parties: the centre-right AD Democratic Alliance, headed by the PSD Social Democrats, and the centre-left PS Socialists.

The centrists have dominated Portuguese politics since the 1974 revolution that replaced dictatorship with democracy.

Opinion polls currently suggest the centre-right is ahead by almost six points, about 33% to 27%. The far-right Chega Party trails at a little over 17%.

The present minority government, led by Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, was sworn in just over a year ago. It formed a coalition with the PSD Social Democrats and the CDS People’s Party. This coalition was not expected to last long.

Allegations against Prime Minister Montenegro about a conflict of interest involving his family’s business sparked a scandal. Montenegro denied the allegations but lost a parliamentary confidence vote and was obliged to call a snap election. It is the third snap election in recent years because of corruption scandals. The most recent one brought down the Socialist government of António Costa.

These events have fuelled much public dissatisfaction with the political class. A total of more than 10,850,000 are registered to take part in next Sunday’s ballot, but a low turnout would not be surprising.

Criticism by the present government of Israel’s worsening war in Gaza, and its strong appeal to India and Pakistan to reduce tensions and quickly enter into a process of dialogue, may influence a number of voters next week.

The leader of the Socialists, Pedro Nuno Santos, said this week he will seek “a solution for political stability in Portugal.”

A Portuguese Gypsy community this week accused the leader of the right-wing Chega Party of being “racist”, and appealed to him to stop encouraging hatred against them. Chega’s leader, André Ventura, responded by saying, “they have to work and comply with the rules.”

POSSIBLE PORTUGUESE POPE

 

 

Cardinal Tolentino de Mendonça

There is the intriguing possibility that a Portuguese, or at least a Portuguese-speaking, cardinal will succeed Pope Francis as the global head of the Catholic Church.

 

This suggestion follows the astonishing power cut across Portugal and Spain, which prompted widespread speculation about a Russian cyber-attack, or even Armageddon—the end-of-the-world prophecy described in the Book of Revelation—that would render the election of another pope unnecessary.

 

With power fully restored, the task of electing the next pope will take place within a closed-door, private conclave in the Vatican, expected to be held between 6 and 11 May. It will comprise about 133 cardinals from around the world. Such gatherings traditionally include all cardinals under the age of 80. The sheer number of electors, and what each individual considers the most important papal objectives, makes reaching a consensus on the final decision particularly challenging.

 

Four Portuguese cardinals are in the running: Antonio Marto, Américo Aguiar, Manuel Clemente, and Tolentino de Mendonça. Of the nine other Portuguese-speaking cardinals in the conclave, seven are from Brazil, one from Cabo Verde, and one from Timor-Leste.

 

Antonio Marto, 80, is the oldest of the Portuguese electors and candidates. He was the Bishop of Viseu-Leiria-Fátima, where he presided over the 100th anniversary of the 1917 Fátima apparitions. He has been closely associated with youth and labour movements, and has emphasised matters such as protecting the environment and the Fátima Marian message of peace.

 

Américo Aguiar, 51, is the youngest of the Portuguese cardinals. Much of his early priesthood was spent in Porto. He was elevated by Pope Francis two years ago, shortly after the World Youth Day celebrations in Lisbon, which he helped organise as head of the event’s overseeing foundation.

 

Manuel Clemente, 78, became a priest at the age of 31 and has now been a cardinal for 10 years. He was Pope Francis’s first appointment when transferred from the Diocese of Porto to the Patriarchate of Lisbon. His career has been closely linked to the Scout movement, participating in retreats and camps until a few years ago. He has also been involved in various social activities, including historical research projects.

 

Tolentino de Mendonça, 59, was born in Madeira. Before becoming a cardinal, he was a university lecturer. He is also a much-published and celebrated poet, essayist, and playwright. While focusing his work as an academic theologian, he was elevated to cardinal in 2019. Pope Benedict XVI invited him to the Vatican in 2011 for appointment as a consultant to the Pontifical Council for Culture. His close association with cultural developments in the Vatican has continued over the past decade. In the last days of Pope Francis’s life, Cardinal Mendonça personally stayed by his side, offering comfort in any way he could. This may make him a strong contender.

 

This conclave, though deeply spiritual and governed by centuries of tradition, is ultimately an election—held behind closed doors by the College of Cardinals—to choose the next pope.

 

 

Written by Len Port.

Edited by Catriona Anderson.

 

FROM DICTATORSHIP TO DEMOCRACY

On this, the 51st anniversary of the revolution that dramatically turned Portugal from a dictatorship into a democracy, this is a remarkably peaceful and stable country.

The snap election that will take place 23 days from now, on 24th May, looks likely to establish a government not so very different from that formed after the coup on 25th April 1974.

Back then, the right- and left-centrist political parties struggled for control during a fairly short period of social unrest while a military junta held power.

The first free election was held exactly one year after the coup to establish a new constitution. One year later, the national election was won by the centre-left Socialist Party (PS), led by Mário Soares. Since then, the centre-left has been battling with the centre-right AD alliance, comprising the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and the People’s Party (CDS-PP).

The two centrist parties are currently campaigning. There is no more than 1% between them in the prediction polls. Well behind is the third competitor, the far-right-wing Chega (“Enough”) party.

On a very important and joint-party personal level, many thanks will be given today to Celeste Caeiro, a restaurant worker who placed red carnations in the barrels of the revolutionary troops’ guns.

Meanwhile, as a relatively small and quiet country on the edge of the Atlantic Ocean in Europe, Portugal continues to express its strongest—and extremely sensible—opinions on the increasing troubles of the world, mainly the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

 Friday, 25th April is a national holiday in Portugal.

By Len Port and Catriona Anderson.

THE PASSING OF POPE FRANCIS

Pope Francis on a visit to the Shrine of Fatima

News of the death of Pope Francis on Easter Monday has been received with great sadness, grief, and mourning by the predominantly Roman Catholic population in Portugal, as elsewhere.

The “People’s Pope” was 88 years old. He had suffered a health crisis earlier this year and was then hospitalised for five weeks with double pneumonia. His life in recent years held special significance in this country.

Portuguese Prime Minister Luís Montenegro said on Monday that Francis was “an extraordinary pope who leaves a unique legacy of humanism, empathy, compassion, and a closeness to people.” Following Francis’s teachings and example, he added, would be the best way to honour his memory.

Originally from Argentina, Pope Francis never returned to his home country after his papal inauguration in Rome in 2013, but he made two special visits to Portugal. Perhaps the most notable was when he presided over the World Youth Day celebrations in Lisbon from 1st to 6th August 2023. Hundreds of thousands of young people from around the world attended in a spirit of harmony and joy.

By then, Francis had become known as the “Green Pope” for his concern for the environment. However, the Catholic Church angered many farmers by urging young people to abstain from eating meat for a year to offset global warming emissions.

Francis had difficulty weathering the widespread outrage caused by revelations of child sexual abuse by Catholic clergy during the papacy of his predecessor, Benedict XVI. In a televised interview in Portugal, Francis stated that the Catholic Church had “zero tolerance for abuse,” and that “a priest cannot remain a priest if he is an abuser.” His statements were quietly debated on the sidelines of the Lisbon youth celebrations.

It was during that week-long stay in Portugal that Pope Francis made his second visit to the Fátima Sanctuary, the first having taken place in 2017 for the centenary of the apparitions reported by three young children.

Deep sorrow is currently being felt amid the prayers beside the shrine in front of the Fátima Basilica.

Written by Len Port,

Edited by Catriona Anderson.

WINE EXPORTS EVAPORATE

Americans may have to cut their intake of booze, as all U.S. importers of alcoholic beverages have stopped taking deliveries from Portugal and the rest of the European Union.

This is part of the tariff war started by President Trump, who happens to be a teetotaller. He has created a “terrible problem” for a “gigantic business,” according to a very sobering statement from the President of the Portuguese National Association of Traders and Exporters of Wines and Spirits, Paulo Amorim.

President Trump recently threatened a heavy tariff on all forms of heady hooch, but his policy direction remains erratic, often subject to sudden reversals. 

The American booze ban follows the Trump administration’s decision to impose 20% tariffs on all popular inebriants. It also seems to have something to do with a proposed E.U. 50% tariff on bourbon, which, for those not familiar with it, is a strong American whiskey.

Last year, Portugal exported over €100 million worth of wine to the U.S., while the E.U. as a whole exported €4.8 billion. Now, with hopes of surpassing €5 billion in exports this year, the E.U. is expected to lose €100 million per week.

It is said that there is no other market in the short or medium term that can fully absorb those who have never suffered the hangovers of too much—such as American whiskey.

The loss of exports to the U.S., which has previously accounted for 28% of E.U. wine shipments, is significant. Alternatives being explored include increasing wine exports to Canada, Mexico, Japan, and China.

Actually, it is all so complex and unpredictable that you might need a glass of wine or a wee dram of whisky to keep up with what’s going on with subjects such as duty-free allowances for travellers. Who knows in this fast-changing world, but you can probably still enter the E.U. with duty-free allowances of one litre of spirits or two litres of other alcoholic drinks.

Written by Len Port

Edited by Catriona Anderson.

DEFIANT EUROPEAN UNITY

Portugal is in close harmony with the rest of the European Union about the three major global concerns - Trump’s tariffs, Israel’s killing of aid workers, and Putin’s relentless war in Ukraine.

 

After the European Union, the United States has long been Portugal’s largest market for goods and services, with exports growing by around 10% annually. Last year, the U.S. imported €5.76 billion worth of Portuguese products, including pharmaceuticals, mineral fuels, oils, electronic equipment, and clothes. The Douro region in the northwest of the country has been exporting plenty of its quality wine to American consumers.

 

The present worry is that this may all dramatically change for the worse as a result of Trump’s astonishing announcement of tariffs on countries around the world.

 

On Monday this week, Portugal’s finance minister said he expected the E.U. to respond to the tariffs in “a measured and balanced manner,” showing “willingness to negotiate” with the United States. On Tuesday, Portuguese government officials discussed the situation with business leaders. On Wednesday—the day Trump’s tariffs were supposed to came into force across Europe and dozens of .other countries—E.U. leaders concluded a three-day meeting in Brussels, agreeing to launch countermeasures next week. In doing so, the E.U. would join China and Canada in retaliating and escalating a global trade war.

 

Speaking on behalf of Portugal and the rest of the 27 members of the E.U., European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen this week offered the U.S. a “zero for zero” tariffs scheme on industrial goods in the hope of avoiding a devastating tit-for-tat trade war between the two continents.

 

Trump is so unpredictable that things could suddenly change – and on Wednesday evening they did. He announced a turnaround by suspending tariffs on the E.U. and most other nations except China for 90 days. Meanwhile, more confusion and more discussions are inevitable.

 

Regarding Israel’s lies and excuses about the brutal killing and burial of 15 medical aid workers on duty in southern Gaza last week, Portugal expressed deep shock, as did U.N. humanitarians. The truth was revealed to the world by top media reality checks. Portugal continues its long-standing condemnation of Israel’s brutal treatment of Palestinians, especially women and children. Israeli forces have killed more than 400 aid workers since October 2022.

 

The United Nations Secretary-General, former Portuguese Prime Minister António Guterres, this week condemned Israel’s continuing blockade of aid to Gaza, saying it had “opened the floodgates of horror.” No food, fuel or medicine has entered Gaza in more than a month, he said.

 

Along with nearly all other European Union countries, as well as the United Kingdom, Portugal remains firmly supportive of Ukraine's right to peaceful independence and is firmly opposed to Russia’s ongoing bombardments in a war that Trump bragged he would end within a day of his re-election.

 

Written by Len Port

Edited by Catriona Anderson.