Portugal’s past, Putin’s future

It is increasingly possible that President Vladamir Putin’s war in Ukraine could be his downfall, not so much because of sanctions imposed by the West, but because of condemnation by his own people. That’s what happened in Portugal during this country’s colonial war in the 1960s and ‘70s.

Portugal’s conflict in the last colonies of its empire ended with the revolution of 1974 when elements of the army, with the approval of the Portuguese population at large, ousted the dictatorship established by Antonio Salazar. The dictatorship was replaced by democracy.

It is predicted that if the war in Ukraine continues for much longer, Putin’s autocratic rule in Russia will plummet. It’s already dropping. Protests in Russian cities involving thousands of citizens outraged by the invasion of Ukraine have continued despite many arrests, but so far no evidence has spilled out of significant opposition to the war from within the Russian military.

While Portugal willingly gave up its long-held empire, Putin seems determined to rebuild the former USSR, the Soviet Union, of which Ukraine was a major part. He could hardly be more different in character from Salazar. Portugal’s dictator lived simply and shunned publicity. Putin, 69, seems to be steeped in hubris. He lives luxuriously, mixing closely only with billionaire cohorts. 

Like Salazar, Putin had a successful university education. He went on to hold important national positions, including head of the KGB, and yet many have described his interest in Ukraine as an “obsession” and seriously questioned a mindset that seems lacking in  rational thinking.  

Although perhaps not able to play a major role in Western sanctions against Russia, the Portuguese government has expressed solidarity with NATO, of which it is a 1949 founding member, and the European Union which it joined in 1986.

Russia’s potential retaliation for Western sanctions is causing alarm in parts of Europe, particularly Germany, dependant on imports of oil and natural gas from Russia. Less discussed but nonetheless important, especially in drought-stricken countries like Portugal, is the fact that Ukraine is the main supplier of maize and Russia the main supplier of wheat to Europe.   

While Portugal is not dependent on Russia oil and gas, a positive alternative for countries facing cuts in energy imports would be the promotion of greater efforts to further develop clean energy sources, such as solar, wind and hydro-power in line with the climate change needs.

Ukraine has a population of over 44 million, more than four times that of Portugal. Huge numbers of refugees have already fled to Poland and other neighbouring countries. The number is expected to reach four million. Many are expected to make their way to Portugal, which has been home in recent years for between 40,000 and 50,000 Ukrainians registered as Portuguese citizens or issued with official residential permits. 

Thankfully, for all Ukrainians and everyone else in this country, Portugal is recognised internationally as one of the most peaceful countries on Earth.     

Cooperation not conflict if we hope to survive climate change

So much aggression across the world is making it increasingly difficult to focus even here in peaceful Portugal on the biggest threat of all to the future of humanity: climate change.

The arguing over Ukraine, now getting close to all-out war, atrocities in Afghanistan, mass killings in African nations, Islamic terrorism, child abuse within the Catholic Church, cyber attacks from China.... this plus the worldwide economic crisis and the COVID pandemic have been diverting attention from the symptoms we are already experiencing of a potential climatic calamity.   

Overcoming the issues discussed but left unresolved by last November’s COP26 conference in Glasgow remains mankind’s greatest and most urgent challenge. It needs intelligent cooperation not absurd confrontation. 

Alarming new studies show that droughts and sea level rises due to climate change are threatening life in the United States more than ever before, just as they are in Portugal.  Even more alarming is the fact that internationally not nearly enough is being done about it.

“Climate change-induced extreme winter drought devastates crops in Spain and Portugal,” just about made it into the international news headlines last week .“This year, amid record low levels, or no rainfall at all, farmers in both Portugal and Spain, who are growing produce for all of Europe, are worried that their crops for this season will be ruined,” reported  Euronews.

Portugal has had little rain since last October. Since the end of January, 45% of the country has been experiencing ‘severe’ or ‘extreme’ drought. Rainfall from the beginning of October to the end of January was less than half the annual average for that four-month period. Water levels in the country’s reservoirs are dropping significantly and there are no reassuring forecasts for heavy rains in the months ahead. Every bit as worrying as growing sufficient agricultural products for human consumption and grass for livestock is providing domestic supplies of fresh water in urban areas. Sufficient winter precipitation prior to the normal dry summer is crucial, but Portugal is not getting it. 

The new studies in the US have reported not only on mega-droughts in California and the rest of the southwest, but on sea level rises all along America’s vast coastline. We know all about sea level rises along Portugal’s west and south coasts. They are threatening to flood and perhaps submerge many communities causing social and financial ruin, not least to tourism.

Longer and hotter heat waves prompting more widespread wildfires are among Portugal’s other major concerns in connection with climate change, which is why mandatory spring land clearing is already underway throughout the country from north to south. 

Yes, we know about the ever-present danger of desertification as Portugal is one of Europe’s most vulnerable countries to climate change because of its geographical location. This is all so distant from the minds of egomanias such as global warming denier Donald Trump and Ukraine obsessed Vladimir Putin, but global leaders must focus much more on supporting, not destroying, the future of life on planet Earth.  

 

Climate change is dramatically changing birdlife across Europe

 

By contributing to global warming, humans are causing major disruptions to birdlife in Portugal and all over the rest of Europe as well as Africa.

For one thing, the annual northward bird migration between Africa and Europe, which traditionally starts this month, is being impacted. Migrants are arriving earlier, staying longer, and in some cases not returning south.

Ornithological studies show that the imbalance has been rapidly increasing and will continue to do so as the planet warms up.

Normally, more than two billion birds have been flying epic journeys from sub-Saharan and southern Africa in spring, and back again in autumn, a total of anywhere between eight and more than twenty thousand kilometres. But these are not normal times. Global warming and increasing desertification has been changing habitats and food availability in Africa, thus making Portugal and all other European spring and summer breeding grounds even more attractive than they used to be.

Studies forecast that many of the commonest migrants will continue to spend as much as two months longer in Europe before returning south in the autumn or winter - and that an increasing number may cease to be long-distance travellers ever again.

A lot of storks and swallows, which are particularly familiar species in Portugal, have given up tackling the hazardous crossing southwards across the Mediterranean Sea and the Sahara desert. They find the year-round environment here is more than adequate.

House martins and cuckoos are among the first and most obvious arrivals here in February and March, but instinctively they are finding it is not worth the effort when Winter environments and food supplies are more plentiful in Europe nowadays compared to a couple of decades ago.

Migrants prepare for departure by consuming as rich and abundant a diet as possible. Even so, there is still a strong possibility of exhaustion on the way. Not only that, they have to depend on their instinctive but still not fully understood ability to navigate over vast distances.

While greater numbers of normally migratory individuals are residing here, Bird International and the RSPCA reckon the overall population of birds in Europe has decreased by around 600 million since 1980. Most of them are common species such as sparrows, starlings and skylarks. Many have been wiped out by agricultural developments, land clearance, air pollution and insecticides. The research shows that some other species have increased by roughly 300 million, hence the net figure of 600 million. The equivalent population decrease over the same period in the United States and Canada is estimated to be more than two billion.

 Complicated as all this may seem, nature is simply being forced to adapt as best as possible in line with Charles Darwin’s theory on the survival of the fittest. In this regard, recently published research using data collected over decades shows that some bird species are adapting to global warming by losing weight, slimming down and slightly extending their wing lengths in order to be more efficient in cooler climes.

Bids that prefer relatively high-altitude living are moving higher in hilly or mountainous areas if warming temperatures demand this. Waders in Portugal and elsewhere will have to find alternative wetlands because of droughts created by climate change. The Portuguese Institute of Meteorology says the current drought here, which started last November, has worsened and now 54% of the country is experiencing moderate drought, 34% severe drought and 11% extreme drought.

Mammals and plants are having to adapt too. Some mammals are slimming down and growing longer noses, ears and tails. Fewer seed-eating birds nowadays mean that plants are suffering because of a lessening of seed distribution.

In contrast to native European birds and mammals, so many humans are obese. The world’s human population is increasing. Climate change is not getting the attention it needs. According to the British Museum of Natural History, of the 544 bird species in Europe, 71 are currently threatened with extinction and 34 more are vulnerable. Humans are likely to become extinct too if they don’t mend their aggressive ways, focus more on nature conservation and keep temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

 

A majority win for the Socialists

The centre-left Socialist Party (PS) was victorious in Sunday’s general election with enough votes for an absolute parliamentary majority led by Antonio Costa.

The result came as a surprise. A Socialist win had been predicted, but opinion polls had suggested a less than outright win, meaning that another minority coalition arrangement would be necessary.

The early election was called because the 2022 budget proposals of the former minority Socialist government were rejected by parliament, including the two far-left parties that until llast November had been supporting the PS.

Provisional results have given the Socialists around 43% of the votes and the centre-right Social Democrats a lower than expected 30%.  The far-right Chega party finished third.

The voter turnout was higher than expected despite the COVID pandemic.

 

Lack of European unity weakens response to the Ukrainian crisis

European countries are already divided on many matters. There are fast-growing concerns that this could greatly worsen unless Russia and the United States can come up with some diplomatic solution to the Ukraine crisis. That looks increasingly unlikely.

Europe’s lack of influence compared with that of the US in the Ukraine discussions is because of a growing power imbalance in the transatlantic alliance. That’s the view of Jeremy Shapiro, Research Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. One can see this power shift in virtually every area of national strength, he says. At the time of the 2008 financial crisis, the EU’s economy was slightly bigger than that of America. From rough parity back then, the US’s economy is now a third larger than that of the EU and the UK combined.

The US’s technological dominance has also grown, while the EU’s military power has dramatically slumped.  America now spends on military defence technologies seven times that of the EU member states together.

“When the Lisbon Treaty entered into force in 2009, it seemed to augur a new capacity for Europeans to forge a common foreign policy and harness the latent strength of what was then the world’s largest economy. Instead, the financial crisis divided north and south, migration and the [2014] Ukraine crisis divided east and west, and Brexit divided the UK and practically everyone else. The institutions of the Lisbon Treaty, particularly the European External Action Service [and the EU office of Foreign Affairs and Security], have failed to bridge these differences in foreign policy. Overall, the EU has become ever more divided and incapable of speaking with one voice.”

Bruno Maçães, a Portuguese academic, author and specialist in European politics, says a consensus is beginning to form that a new war in Ukraine has become inevitable. “In large measure this is due to the escalation in both rhetoric and military preparedness coming from Moscow. Combined they create a situation where the costs of retreating for Moscow might now be too high. The clout and credibility acquired over the last decade – which people in the Kremlin applaud as a return to superpower status – would suddenly evaporate were President Vladimir Putin to order the troops amassed on Ukraine’s borders to return home.”

Maçães, a former Portuguese Secretary of State for European Affairs, wrote a piece published recently in Time magazine headlined, “What Happens Next in Ukraine Could Change Europe Forever.”

He maintains that Europe has very little say in the current war of words over Ukraine. The tough talking from the West is all coming from the United States. Even Europe’s strongest nations  have expressed little that will change Vladimir Putin’s mind, not that anyone is yet quite sure what exactly is on his mind. The “swift and severe sanctions” promised to be imposed by the West if Russia invades remain vague.

Germany’s new coalition government, the country’s reliance on Russian natural gas supplies, as well as its deeply troubling history of 25 to 31 million Russians killed during Russia’s defeat of the Nazis in the Second World War, are all preventing it proposing any really strong measures against the Kremlin. France is preoccupied with its election in April this year. Britain is steeped in scandal over Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s honesty and behaviour. Peaceful Portugal and other EU members are simply on the sidelines of the current verbal US-Russian conflict.

In his recent writings, Bruno Maçães has emphasised Europe’s dependence on Russian natural gas supplies. Put simply: “Vladimir Putin holds the cards when it comes to Europe’s energy needs.”

Portugal does not use or need Russian gas, but Europe as a whole imports 35% of its energy needs from Russia. The strongest European countries have increasingly turned towards cheap and plentiful imports of Russian natural gas, critical for electricity and heating,” writes Maçães.

Even if a Russian attack against Ukraine was to last for just a week or so, and mass casualties were avoided, Maçães believes neither Ukraine nor world politics would remain unchanged. The existing security order in Europe would be broken beyond repair.

Portugal and the Ukraine crisis

Portugal will have plenty of national post-election problems to deal with in the weeks and months ahead, but one of its wider worries that should not be underestimated is the tension between the West and Russia over Ukraine.

Portuguese foreign and defence officials will be carefully watching developments amid fears that the Ukraine confrontation could spiral out of control and affect the whole of Europe. Dialogue and diplomacy between Russia and the United States are at present keeping armed conflict and perhaps even an all-out war at bay. More clarity about the possibility of compromises may emerge as early as this coming week when further negotiations are scheduled.  

Ukraine is an independent sovereign nation. It is not a member of either the EU or NATO. Historically and ethnically it has been close to Russia in that it formed part of the Soviet Union. Geographically located next to Russia, Ukraine also borders on a few EU states that are members of NATO. President Vladimir Putin emphatically demands that Ukraine is not allowed to join the EU or NATO. Equally emphatically, the majority of Ukrainians, especially those in the west of the country, want to be free of any form of Russian domination.

Led by the United States, European countries have joined in the war of words, promising massive economic sanctions if Russia does not back off the troops and military equipment amassed along the frozen  1,600 km  northern, eastern and southern borders of Ukraine. Russia is also thought to have recently carried out cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns and other hostile acts while claiming it has no intention of invading Ukraine.  Should it do so,  a united, swift and strong response is assure

No one in the West is quite sure what Putin’s intentions are, but a weakening or breakup of the EU is suspected of being one of his primary goals. Perhaps he is just exerting pressure to force a rollback of NATO forces in countries close to Russia. Both sides have so far remained resolute in the negotiations held most recently last Friday between the Russian and US foreign ministers. They concluded with a wide gulf between the two.  So where does Portugal fit into all this?

Portugal firmly supports the joint EU and US stance even though it is not a direct participant in the ongoing negotiations. Germany, France and the UK are the main interlocutors with the US and Russia. Fortunately for Portugal, unlike much of the rest of Europe it is not dependent on natural gas supplies from Russia, which it is feared the Kremlin might be using as a weapon in the current stalemate. Portugal’s gas originates in Algeria, Nigeria and the US.

Portugal has concerns even though it is the most distant EU country from Ukraine and thus perhaps the least vulnerable should dialogue fail. It is situated more than 3,000 km west of Ukraine. It’s about the same distance east of the United States. As distant as it is, defence minister, Joao Gomes Gravinho, told his 26 EU counterparts at a meeting earlier this month in Brest, France, that he was delighted with the “absolute refusal” by all EU member states to give in to Russia’s attempts to divide the Union by threatening Ukraine.

The defence minister went so far as to claim: “It’s clear that Russia’s attitudes seek to divide – divide the Europeans and divide the Europeans from the North Americans.” He described it as “a very worrying situation that must be dealt with firmly, with a clear purpose and in unity among all Europeans.” He added that in the case of Ukraine there is strict coordination, as opposed to the confusion last year when US troops were withdrawn from Afghanistan without the prior knowledge by European governments

Boaventura de Sousa Santos, a Portuguese professor of sociology at the School of Economics, the University of Coimbra, does not lean nearly as heavily on Russia’s behaviour as most Western commentators. He argues that the United Nations could play a crucial role in defusing what he calls the escalating Cold War.  “This war, which was set in motion by Donald Trump and enthusiastically continued by Joe Biden, seeks to have two targets, China and Russia, and two fronts, Taiwan and Ukraine. It would seem unwise for a declining power such as the United States to engage in confrontation on two different fronts at the same time.”   

Meanwhile, Portugal is pressing the EU to focus much more than it has done in the past on the Atlantic Ocean and strengthen maritime security. This will be addressed in a new version of the EU’s Defence Strategy scheduled to be approved in March, if not before. In past years, top Russian warships have passed along Portugal’s coast, at times as close as 26 nautical miles from the Algarve’s shores.    

 

Whatever the election outcome, democratic freedom will prevail

In the run-up to Portugal’s national legislative election, it’s worth remembering that this country is internationally recognised as a stable parliamentary democracy with a multiparty political system and free and fair elections every four years – except the timing of this latest is different.

The Prime Minister holds the most executive power within the parliamentary system, although the President of the Republic can veto legislation or dissolve parliament and trigger an early election.

President Marcelo Rebelo da Sousa did just that towards the end of last year when the incumbent Socialist government under Antonio Costa failed to get their 2022 budget proposals approved. Hence the snap election on January 30 after just two years.

Under a proportional representation arrangement, Portuguese voters select 230 parliamentarians to fill the seats in the Assembly of the Republic.

The Freedom House global research and advocacy organisation based in Washington D.C., notes that Portugal has established a strong pattern of peaceful power transfers through regular elections since the return to democracy in the 1970s. In its most recent global index, Freedom House has rated Portugal’s political status very highly. It says that Portuguese voters and politicians are free from undue interference by forces outside the political system. Women and members of different ethnic, religious and other minorities enjoy full political rights and participate in the political system. Women held 38%of the seats in the last parliament. Parties espousing racist, fascist or regionalism values are constitutionally prohibited.

The two autonomous regions of the Azores and Madeira have their own political structures, legislative and administrative powers. While located a long way from the mainland – the Azores archipelago 1,600 km west in the mid-North Atlantic and Madeira 1,000 south of Portugal and 700 km off the west coast of Africa – the rights of their people to self determination have long been recognised and respected by the parliament in Lisbon. The islanders are culturally, politically and economically closely associated with Portugal and the European Union.

Some top politicians as well as judges, bankers, business executives and football club presidents have plagued continental Portugal with corruption scandals that the government in recent years has struggled to cope with. A report issued by the European Commission has highlighted the need for improved anti-corruption efforts. While several laws to enhance accountability and transparency for elected officials were approved in 2019, enforcement and effectiveness remain inadequate.

Other major challenges facing any new government will include the 2022 budget and making the best use of the economic relief funds provided by the European Union. COVID-19 will remain a very difficult issue in the year and perhaps years ahead.

Further pressing matters, such as strike-prone workers in various sectors and the ill-treatment of convicted prisoners, will be high on the agenda for the next government, but it remains to be seen if they can be tackled directly by a majority government or a more complicated coalition.

The two main centrist parties in the last parliament are sure to dominate again. The centre-left Socialists (PS) had 108 seats and the centre-right Social Democrats (PSD) had 79. Opinion polls show the Socialists still the clear favourites to win. The Socialists ruled with support from the far-left from 2015. The centre-right Social Democrats, who are thought of as liberal conservatives, will certainly finish second if not first.

Both the centrist parties and their voters are somewhat concerned about those who are so fed up of the main parties that they will go with the far-right Chega (Enough) party that has whipped up much attention since its founder, Andre Ventura, entered parliament with the party’s single seat in 2019. The far-left, comprising the Left Bloc and the Communists, are trailing, as are The People-Animals-Nature Party and other small groups.

Whatever the latest election result, democracy will be faced with very difficult decisions, but freedom and civil liberties will prevail.