Not
for the first time, Spain looks like following in the footsteps of
its much smaller neighbour.
It’s
not quite on the grand scale of the Spanish taking their cue from the
Portuguese in the Age of Discoveries, or in switching from
dictatorship to democracy in the 1970s.
However,
the outcome of Sunday’s general election over the border may turn
out to be as muddled as the recent political events in Portugal,
giving rise to even greater worries within Europe about instability
as Spain is the EU’s fourth biggest economy.
The
pre-election polls in Spain showed not much separating the
conservative Popular Party, the centre-left Socialists and the
slightly right-of-centre Ciudadanos (‘Citizens’) party.
The
recent rise of Ciudadanos to rival the two established patries has
been spectacular. The surge in popularity of the new anti-austerity
Podemos, follows that of Portugal’s Left Bloc and Greece’s
Syriza.
To
form a government straight away, one of the parties must win more
than 50% of the seats in parliament in Sunday’s election.
As
with the conservative coalition in Portugal before the 4th October
election here, the PP in Spain are likely to gain the most votes but
not a majority.
If
so, King Filipe VI will enter the fray as did President Aníbal
Cavaco Silva here. He will nominate a prime minister who will then
seek the backing of at least 50% of the elected members of
parliament.
This
will involve horse-trading in which the party with the most votes
might be able to drum up support from one of the others and emerge
with a mandate to govern.
If
such a backing does not materialise, the Spanish tradition is to have
a second ballot among elected members of parliament within 48 hours.
Ciudadanos
might not win the most votes at any stage but they could be pivotal.
As a centrist party they might give conditional backing to either the
conservatives or the socialists - or they might receive such backing.
A
grand coalition between the conservatives and socialists is thought
unlikely. Where, of if, Podemos could fit into any mix is anyone’s
guess.
But
the improbable is not impossible as demonstrated in Portugal where a
trio of losing parties ended up determining the government.
The
voter turnout in Spain may be higher than in Portugal because of the colourful choice of characters involved.
The
PP’s Mariano Rajoy, 60, has been a surprisingly introverted prime
minister who asked his deputy, Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría,
to replace him in a televised debate with the other party leaders. On
Wednesday he was punched in the face by a teenager at a campaign
rally in his home region of Galicia.
The
relaxed, down-to.earth, Pedro Sánchez, 43, is a tall and
handsome former economics professor and basketball player who towers
over his political opponents physically.
The
gentlemanly leader of Ciudadanos, Albert Rivera, is only
36-years-old, a lawyer who first came to prominence by appearing on a
campaign poster naked but for a leather jacket.
Pablo
Iglesias of Podemos is a easy-going 37-year-old professor of
political science who in a way epitomises the radical left by
shunning quality suits and sporting a pony-tail hairstyle.
One
way or another, it’s measuring up to be an unusual Christmas for
politicians over the border. If things remain messy rather than
merry, a second general election will have to be held two months into
the new year.
The Socialist , Podemos and
Ciudadanos leaders at a televised debate at which the Popular Party was represented by its deputy leader (far right).
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