Half the World has Stated Voting

Portuguese politicians are gearing up for the snap legislative election to be held on 10 March.  Globally, it will be just one of the biggest number of national elections ever held in a single year.

The centre-left Socialist Party that was dissolved in Portugal near the end of last year will be opposed by a centre-right coalition led by the Social Democrats (PSD). For the first time, Portugal’s right-wing Chega populist party is expected to be strongly in the race.

President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa called for the snap election after the Socialist Party was caught up in a corruption scandal that forced Prime Minister Antonio Costa to stand down.

Almost half the voters in the world spread over more than 50 countries will be choosing their governments or top leaders this year. Bangladesh and Bhutan have already gone to the polls in recent days. Taiwan is next. Finland will be electing its president on 28 January.

In the months ahead, the countries holding elections will include Iran, Ireland and Russia in March, India in April-May, the European Union in June, and the United States and probably the United Kingdom in November.

The three elections of most international concern are those in Russia, the European Union and the United States.

Russia’s presidential election is widely regarded as a foregone conclusion.  President Vladimir Putin will be seeking a fifth term in office, the first since launching the war in Ukraine. He has already led his country for a longer time than any other Russian apart from Joseph Stalin, who dominated the then Soviet Union from 1924 to1953. Putin is largely basing his popularity on his efforts to dismantle Ukraine’s independence and restore its former position as part of the Soviet Union.

Together with his top colleagues in the Kremlin, Putin will make sure that anyone with the slightest chance of beating him in the presidency election will be sidelined one way or another. If re-elected, he is sure to carry on trying to win the war in Ukraine and enhance his strength in the Western World.

The European Union is politically changing with the increase in the number of far-right parties in the alliance.  This has been happening in the Netherlands, Italy and Hungary, plus the strengthening of Marine Le Pen’s National Party in France, and Andre Ventura’s  Chega party in Portugal.

Conservatives are expected to join forces with the far-right in the coming EU parliamentary election, meaning moderates in the 27 EU states may have to further curtail the “Green Deal” policy on climate change.  Opinion polls, however, suggest that radical politicians will remain as a minority and moderates will prevail in the new parliament. 

The most divisive and potentially dangerous election outcome would be a victory for Donald Trump in the United States. A return to presidential power, which is looking increasing likely, would send shock waves across the European Union, the United Kingdom and democracies everywhere else.

While plenty of would-be US Republican and Democrat candidates have put forward their names, it seems clear that only Donald Trump and current president, Joe Biden, will have any chance of winning in November. The betting is very much on a Trump victory, despite the many legal investigations and subsequent criminal charges against him. He has indicated that as the 47^th US president he will crack down on the legal authorities that have investigated and  indicted him. 

Trump claims he will immediately settle Putin’s war and stop what he calls “the endless flow of American treasure to Ukraine.” He threatens to “fundamentally re-evaluate” NATO’s purpose and mission, thus greatly endangering European security and weakening its traditional ties with the US. All this and other tough measures, such as halting immigration from Mexico and Muslim countries, are expected to cause every bit as much chaos and division in his own country as during his first term in office.   

Meanwhile, the next government in Portugal will want to steer clear of this sort of excessive drama and keep this country as peaceful and prosperous as possible.

Portuguese politicians are gearing up for the snap legislative election to be held on 10 March.  Globally, it will be just one of the biggest number of national elections ever held in a single year.

The centre-left Socialist Party that was dissolved in Portugal near the end of last year will be opposed by a centre-right coalition led by the Social Democrats (PSD). For the first time, Portugal’s right-wing Chega populist party is expected to be strongly in the race.

President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa called for the snap election after the Socialist Party was caught up in a corruption scandal that forced Prime Minister Antonio Costa to stand down.

Almost half the voters in the world spread over more than 50 countries will be choosing their governments or top leaders this year. Bangladesh and Bhutan have already gone to the polls in recent days. Taiwan is next. Finland will be electing its president on 28 January.

In the months ahead, the countries holding elections will include Iran, Ireland and Russia in March, India in April-May, the European Union in June, and the United States and probably the United Kingdom in November.

The three elections of most international concern are those in Russia, the European Union and the United States.

Russia’s presidential election is widely regarded as a foregone conclusion.  President Vladimir Putin will be seeking a fifth term in office, the first since launching the war in Ukraine. He has already led his country for a longer time than any other Russian apart from Joseph Stalin, who dominated the then Soviet Union from 1924 to1953. Putin is largely basing his popularity on his efforts to dismantle Ukraine’s independence and restore its former position as part of the Soviet Union.

Together with his top colleagues in the Kremlin, Putin will make sure that anyone with the slightest chance of beating him in the presidency election will be sidelined one way or another. If re-elected, he is sure to carry on trying to win the war in Ukraine and enhance his strength in the Western World.

The European Union is politically changing with the increase in the number of far-right parties in the alliance.  This has been happening in the Netherlands, Italy and Hungary, plus the strengthening of Marine Le Pen’s National Party in France, and Andre Ventura’s  Chega party in Portugal.

Conservatives are expected to join forces with the far-right in the coming EU parliamentary election, meaning moderates in the 27 EU states may have to further curtail the “Green Deal” policy on climate change.  Opinion polls, however, suggest that radical politicians will remain as a minority and moderates will prevail in the new parliament. 

The most divisive and potentially dangerous election outcome would be a victory for Donald Trump in the United States. A return to presidential power, which is looking increasing likely, would send shock waves across the European Union, the United Kingdom and democracies everywhere else.

While plenty of would-be US Republican and Democrat candidates have put forward their names, it seems clear that only Donald Trump and current president, Joe Biden, will have any chance of winning in November. The betting is very much on a Trump victory, despite the many legal investigations and subsequent criminal charges against him. He has indicated that as the 47^th US president he will crack down on the legal authorities that have investigated and  indicted him. 

Trump claims he will immediately settle Putin’s war and stop what he calls “the endless flow of American treasure to Ukraine.” He threatens to “fundamentally re-evaluate” NATO’s purpose and mission, thus greatly endangering European security and weakening its traditional ties with the US. All this and other tough measures, such as halting immigration from Mexico and Muslim countries, are expected to cause every bit as much chaos and division in his own country as during his first term in office.   

Meanwhile, the next government in Portugal will want to steer clear of this sort of excessive drama and keep this country as peaceful and prosperous as possible.

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Phasing Out All Use of Fossil Fuels

Hydro power

Portugal is forging ahead with phasing out fossil fuels to help save the planet from global warming. Thanks to strong winds, plenty of bright sunshine, and even lots of rain in parts of the country, Portugal is in the forefront of expanding the use of renewable sources to produce electricity.

The United Nations COP28 summit in the oil producing United Arab Emirates spent a week wrangling over the wording of “phasing out” in the final version of its agreement.  It eventually managed to agree on  the much weaker term “transition from” fossil fuels because “phasing out” did not suit the countries producing oil, natural gas or coal.

Portugal is on course to generate 85% of the country’s electricity by 2030.  In the year just ended, it reached a record 61%. That was up from 49% the year before. It most certainly is “phasing out,” meaning “ending” fossil fuels, yet it is still reliant to a degree, for example, on natural gas imported from Algeria and Nigeria. Larger European countries have been importing natural gas from the world’s biggest supplier, Russia, but this is being discontinued because of rising gas prices since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Last year, wind produced 25% of Portugal’s electricity needs, while 23% came from hydro power, 7% from solar and 6% from biomass. That’s according to REN, the company that manages the Portuguese power grid.

The share of renewables on Germany’s grid rose by 6.6% in 2023 to a total of 55.0%, the sector’s regulator has announced this week. Europe’s largest economy has abandoned nuclear power and plans to stop the use of coal. It aims to depend on green energy for 80% of its energy needs by 2030. 

Renewables provided just 38.4% of the energy in United Kingdom in the 12 months to December 2023. Wind provided 27.9%, biomass 4.8%, solar 4.5% and hydro 1.1%. Fossil fuels were the source of 33.1% in the mix, with gas leading with 32.1% and coal 1.0%. The UK has made progress over the past decade by reducing its use of fossil fuels from 58.1% to 31.1%, but a great increase in renewables will be needed if its 2035 target to decarbonise the electricity system is to be met.

In the United States the share of electricity generated from renewable sources has continued to rise, especially from biofuels, solar and wind.  In what was hailed as a “new milestone,” renewables accounted for a quarter of US electricity generated in the first half of last year, slightly higher than in 2022.

The use of abundant, clean renewable sources of energy is now unstoppable. Hopefully it will bring an end as soon as possible to the greenhouse gas emissions that are causing dramatic and highly destructive climate change across the world. Scientists say that ending the fossil fuel industry and achieving genuine net zero carbon emission targets is the only hope of a liveable climate.

 

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OH NO! FACEMASKS AGAIN!

 

The Portugal Medical Association has advised the use of facemasks to minimise the impact of respiratory infections such as influenza.

Doctors here and elsewhere say wearing a mask might help, but the best of all protections is a flu vaccine.

Those who suspect they are susceptible or already have a severe cold or flu should wear a mask to stop passing it on to others, doctors advise. This means wearing a mask while among your own household as well as when out and about in public places.

About 96% of patients admitted to Portuguese hospital emergency units recently are being treated for influenza, according to a spokesperson for the National Institute of Health. Don’t be surprised if healthcare workers are wearing a facemask as the bug is the last thing they want to contract while looking after patients.

Influenza can kill. But don’t panic. An annual flu jab for everyone but babies younger than six months is highly advisable.

Frequent hand washing is very important. Wash with soap and water each time for at least 20 seconds.  Otherwise, use an alcohol-based sanitizer. Those close to you should do the same.  Hand washing is especially important after coughing or sneezing.

Often touched surfaces in the kitchen, for example, can hang on to, and pass on, the virus. So make sure they are frequently cleaned.  

The flu virus travels willy-nilly through the air and if you catch it, it usually lasts for five to seven days, but maybe 14 days.

 

Good luck – and Happy New Year!

A very unhappy Christmas for many

 

Christmas, a time of happiness and peace for many of us, but people in the ‘holy land’ where Christmas started, are in a vicious war with no end in sight.

The greatest peacemaker of our time, UN Secretary-General and former Portuguese Prime minister, Antonio Guterres, has been doing everything he possibly can to bring about a cessation of hostilities, but the government of Israel and the Palestinian Hamas militants have both declared they are going to fight on to the bitter end and eradicate their opponents.

The Palestinian authorities say more than 20,000 people, half of them children or women, have been killed by the relentless Israeli bombardment since the Hamas massacre and seizure of hostages on October 7.

The latest United Nations Security Council resolution on the conflict was only agreed upon after a week of delays and indecisions. It contained no mention of the word “ceasefire” and has thus been widely described as “woefully insufficient” and “nearly meaningless.”

The delicately worded resolution does, however, suggest that “all parties immediately facilitate and enable safe and unhindered deliveries of humanitarian assistance to scale” to Palestinians in Gaza.

No Security Council members voted against the motion, but the United States and Russia abstained.

Mr Guterres was clearly disappointed by the wrangled outcome on Friday. He said: “ I hope that today’s Security Council Resolution will help the delivery if much-needed aid, but a humanitarian ceasefire is the only way to meet the desperate needs of people in Gaza and end their ongoing nightmare.”

Mr Guterres has long said the only sustainable way to end the century-old hatred and dispute between Israelis and Palestinians is a two-state solution. The current right-wing Israeli government rejects this outright.

António Guterres faces controversial opposition

 

 United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has been doing his level best to push forward dramatic change on two critical fronts, but he has been facing highly controversial opposition.

After personally appealing for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire in the Israeli-Gaza war, Guterres agreed to a request to have the matter put to a vote in the UN Security Council. Thirteen members of the council last week voted in favour of the draft resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire. The United Kingdom abstained. The United States used its veto. The US was the only member to block the draft.

Guterres said he would continue to do everything possible to bring about an immediate ceasefire.

Yesterday in the UN General Assembly an emergency motion calling for an immediate ceasefire was passed by an overwhelming majority. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is dismissive of the UN as a whole, but President Joe Biden warned Israel it was losing support in the US, Europe and elsewhere for its war in Gaza.  

Two days before the original vote, Guterres warned the 15-member council that a continuation of the war could have global consequences. 

The United States’ deputy UN ambassador said that while the US hoped for a durable two-state solution in which Israel and Palestine could live in peace and security, but described the draft resolution as a rushed text “divorced from reality.”

The US has isolated itself by refusing to condemn the devastating actions of Israel, an ally it is strongly supporting with weapons and funding.

The United Kingdom’s UN ambassador said her country had abstained in the UN Security Council vote because the draft resolution contained no mention of Hamas’ involvement in the war.

António Guterres, 74, who was Portugal’s prime minister from 1995 to 2002, has served as the UN secretary-general since 2017 and is in his second term. As he was elected by the UN General Assembly in 2005 to become the high commissioner for refugees, a position he held for a decade until December 2015, he has a special insight into what he repeatedly calls the “humanitarian catastrophe” now being faced by Palestinians in Gaza.

He warns that with the war in Gaza “we are at a breaking point. The situation is simply becoming untenable.”

He has emphasised that “the people of Gaza are looking into the abyss. The international community must do everything possible to end their ordeal.”

That is not going to happen until Israel stops killing thousands of Palestinians with its relentless bombing campaign, and through starvation and spreading diseases because of its blockade on sufficient essential supplies getting into Gaza.

 

 

Guterres and most political leaders and scientists around the world were deeply concerned that the draft agreement near the end of the United Nations COP28 Climate Summit did not include any mention of phasing out fossil fuels.

On day one of the two-week conference in Dubai, capital of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Guterres pleaded with leaders from the more than 160 countries taking part to reach an agreement to take immediate action to stop temperatures rising above the critical 1.5C limit. Instead of unanimity, there was a fundamental division of opinion between the fossil fuel producing countries and most of the others, including Portugal.

 

This was partially put to rest by a last minute deal in the early hours of this morning in which there was an overall agreement to make "a transition" from fossil fuels, but with no specific timeline.

Global warming is caused by the billion of tonnes of man-made CO2 greenhouse gases being emitted into the atmosphere, most of it from the use of coal, oil and natural gas. The countries causing the highest levels of CO2 emissions – China, the United States, India – have not been keeping their promises to hugely reduce use of fossil fuels that are causing the emissions. Worse, the countries producing the most fossil fuels, especially Saudi Arabia, do not really want to phase out fossil fuel production and export.

The president of COP28, who is the chief executive of the UAE’s huge oil industry, said there is “no science” behind claims that a phase-out of fossil fuels would restrict global heating to 1.5C. 

António Guterres, along with most climate scientists in the world, as well as most participants in the summit, were shocked by this opinion, but it had the full backing of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

As Guterres has made abundantly clear, today’s deal is far from perfect, but it could be an historic turning point in the future of human existence.

 

 

 

CHRISTMAS GIFT?

Insights into Adventure, Mystery and Intriguing Personalities throughout the History of the Algarve.

 

An undated eBook and soft cover edition by Len Port has just been published by Amazon Kindle.

PORTUGUESE OFFICIALSL AT THE CRITICAL COP28 CLIMATE SUMMIT

 

 

Portugal has a very significant presence in the United Nations Global Climate summit (COP28) in the United Arab Emirates, which started last Thursday and runs until December 12.

 

It opened last week with an impassioned speech by António Guterres. The UN secretary-general told delegates from the more than 160 nations: “Humanity’s fate is hanging in the balance. This is a sickness only you global leaders can cure.” He pleaded for an end to dependence on fossil fuels and the long over-due promise of justice in the shape of funds to pay for the most devastating impacts of climate change in the world’s less developed and most vulnerable communities and countries. 

 

The world is heating up at an unprecedented pace, according to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). It says that temperatures this year have risen to 1.4 Celsius above pre-industrial levels, just short of the critical 1.5C.

 

“We are living through climate collapse in real time,” the UN chief told COP28 delegates.

“This year has seen communities around the world pounded by fires, floods, and searing temperature – and the impact is devastating,”

He continued: “Record global heating should send shivers down the spines of world leaders. And it should trigger them to act.”

The record temperatures shattered this year have caused a trail of “devastation and despair,” says the WMO. It expects next year to be even hotter.

 

WMO data up to the end of October showed 2023 was about 1.4C (2.5F) above pre-industrial levels, driven largely by the continued rise in carbon emissions that the major polluting countries claim they are trying to reduce.

 

The WMO has pointed out that, “These are more than just statistics. Extreme weather is destroying lives and livelihoods on a daily basis – underlining the imperative need to ensure that everyone is protected by early warning services. We cannot return to the climate of the 20th century, but we must act now to limit the risks of an increasingly inhospitable climate in this and coming centuries.” 

In his remarks to the COP28 summit, Mr. Guterres mentioned his recent trips to both Antarctica and Nepal where he witnessed at first-hand the extent of melting polar and glacier ice.

“These two spots are far in distance, but united in crisis,” said Mr. Guterres. It is just one symptom of the sickness bringing our climate to its knees, he said.

The former Portuguese prime minister also said that global heating is busting budgets, ballooning food prices, upending energy markets, and feeding a cost-of-living crisis.

“We are miles from the goals of the Paris Agreement – and minutes to midnight for the 1.5-degree limit.”

Mr. Guterres emphasized that the success of the Dubai conference will depend on the outcome of the so-named ‘Global Stocktake’ – where countries will for the first time assess progress on curbing global warming – which can get the world on track to achieve the temperature, finance, and adaptation goals.

He underscored that the stocktake must prescribe a credible cure for our ailing planet in three key areas.

The UN press office has explained: First, a drastic cut in emissions since current policies are leading us to an earth-scorching three-degree temperature rise.

Second, acceleration towards a just, equitable transition to renewables, since a burning planet cannot be saved with a firehose of fossil fuels. “The 1.5-degree limit is only possible if we ultimately stop burning all fossil fuels. Not reduce. Not abate. Phase out – with a clear timeframe aligned with 1.5 degrees.”

Third, fulfillment of the long overdue promise of climate justice in an unequal and divided world – a surge in finance, including for adaptation and loss and damage.

Mr Guterres has urged developed countries to double adaptation finance to $40 billion a year by 2025 and provide details on how they plan to deliver on the $100 billion promise for financial support for developing countries.

Joe Biden and Xi Jinping have been absent from this so-called “Action” COP summit, but Prime Minister António Costa has attended and welcomed delegates for the first time to Portugal’s own pavilion to hold side events. On previous COP gathering Portugal has shared the European Union’s overall space.

Portugal has an excellent record in dealing internally with climate change, particularly in the phasing out of fossil fuels and relying on renewables. It seems hypocritical that the current summit is being hosted by one of the world’s most fossil fuel producing countries, but there we are.  And worse, the main greenhouse gas polluting countries – China, the United States, India and Russia – have long indulged in rhetoric about global warming, but hopelessly failed to deliver on promises of immediate action to adequately curtail the dire situation.