The Algarve oil and gas fight goes on

As the implications of the Paris agreement on climate change began to hit home in countries around the world this week, there was no great sigh of relief in the Algarve where concerns are running high about oil and gas explorations.

With the future of the planet at stake,195 countries agreed in Paris to cut carbon emissions in an attempt to limit the average rise in global temperatures to well below 2C, and maybe even below 1.5ºC.

Twenty years in the making, the agreement is a recognition that without curbs on carbon emissions, temperatures could rise well above 2ºC, with catastrophic consequences.

The agreement envisages an end to the age of fossil fuels by the middle of this century. The goal is to replace oil, coal and natural gas with renewable, low carbon forms of energy.

Widely described as “historic”, the agreement still has to be ratified. And then it has to be implemented, which will be all the more difficult because it is largely based on voluntary promises that are not legally binding. In other words, the agreement is far from perfect.

Portugal’s Secretary of State for the Environment, Carlos Martins, welcomed the accord, but said there was “demanding work ahead.”

Whatever its shortcomings, thrashing out the Paris deal required a lot of information sharing, transparency, public scrutiny and open dialogue. This was in stark contrast to the conniving that has been going on in Lisbon over fossil fuel explorations in the Algarve.

Through the association of borough councils (AMAL), the Algarve’s mayors recently added their voices to those of campaigners who have long been critical of the cloud of secrecy behind the issuing of  concessions for coastal oil and gas explorations.

The latest announcement of  licences for onshore exploration almost right across the region came without the opportunity for any prior public discussion.

An AMAL statement denounced as unjustifiable “the constant absence of information either to councils, the inter-municipal community of the Algarve or Algarve citizens by successive governments.”

The authorities in Lisbon have turned a blind eye to serious concerns expressed by campaigners about the impact drilling for oil and gas could have on the quality of life in the Algarve and its most vital economic activity, tourism.

In the light of the Paris accord, the world’s fossil fuel companies, especially those that have not diversified into other forms of energy, will now have to figure out the way forward. And could it be that the government in Lisbon may have to re-examine the readiness to hand out concessions?

In the forefront of the Algarve anti-exploration battle, Laurinda Seabra of the Algarve Surf and Marine Activities Association (ASMAA) remains resolute.

“Based on the fact that direct mention of fossil-fuels is lacking in the Paris agreement, I very much doubt that this agreement on its own will motivate the Portuguese government to change its current position regarding fossil fuels and the continued promotion of its exploration and commercialisation in Portugal,” Seabra told us.

She added: “This means that the fight by local residents and friends of the Algarve has to escalate seriously if we want the Portuguese government to change direction.”

Portugal in global climate risk top 20

Portugal was among the 20 countries in the world most affected by global warming over the past 20 years, according to a Global Climate Risk Index report presented at the climate change conference in Paris.

“The Index indicates the level of exposure and vulnerability to extreme events that countries should understand as a warning to be prepared for more frequent and more severe events in the future,” says the report.

The 20-year index covering the period 1995 to 2014 is dominated by some of the least developed countries in the world.

Portugal appears in 19th place, third in Europe after Germany and alongside France. The UK, which was struck this week by devastating floods, is well down the list at 58.

The Index says there have been more than 15,000 extreme climatic events over the past 20 years resulting in 530,000 deaths, immense wastage in food production and financial losses exceeded 2.8 trillion euros.

The Rockefeller Foundation estimates that over the past 30 years, one dollar in every three spent in development was lost as a result of recurrent climate crises.

Behind the most obvious extreme events, such as floods, landslides, heatwaves and droughts, lurk melting glaciers, increases in ocean acidity and ominous rises in sea levels.

Sea levels along the shores of mainland Portugal have been rising annually over the past decade by more than four millimetres, twice as much as in the previous two decades, according to a report commissioned by the government and published last year.

Increases in average summer temperatures of 1ºC to 2ºC in the Azores, 2ºC to 3ºC in Madeira and up to 7ºC on mainland Portugal have been predicted by climate specialists.

The aim expressed during the Paris conference is to keep average global increases to below 2ºC. Feared average increases of 4ºC could elevate sea levels to a height that would swamp almost every coastal town and resort in the Algarve, as well as the lower parts of Lisbon and two-thirds of the world’s other major cities.

At the start of the Paris conference, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon launched an initiative aimed at “anticipating the dangers, absorbing the impact and reshaping development” to avoid the risks of climate change facing 634 million people living in coastal areas and drought and flood zones.

It is expected that detailed agreements on this and other measures will be signed before the talks wrap up in Paris at the weekend.

Meanwhile, the authors of the Global Climate Risk Index acknowledge that individual extreme events (such as in Albufeira last month) cannot necessarily be attributed to climate change caused by humans.

Moreover, the authors recognise that their latest report is only one piece in the complex jigsaw of climate change statistics. The events recorded do not serve as a projection for future occurrences – but they are certainly an indication that should be taken very seriously.

The good news is that during a recent congress of the Portuguese Association of Renewable Enterprises, the state energy secretary, Jorge Seguro, emphasised the importance of investing in the renewable industry. He said that with the help of green energy investments this country had already reduced its fossil fuel dependence from 85% to 72%.

Between 2010 and 2013, Portugal saved €5.3 billion in imports of fossil fuels (gas, solid fuels and oil) thanks to renewables. The industry created 40,000 jobs and exported products worth €300 million.

The goal is to increase the use of renewables in Portugal to 31% by 2020.

Eyes to the left to see what comes next

Lest there was any doubt, it has just been confirmed that we live in a politically weird world. Never mind the shenanigans going on elsewhere in Europe and farther afield, Portugal now has a new government - another new government.

Having muddled through almost two rudderless months since the general election, Portugal finds itself still faced with huge economic problems and now heading towards a highly uncertain 2016 with one of the most unlikely of government setups imaginable.

Even by the standard of Portugal's turbulent young democracy, recent weeks have been dizzying. Just to recap for those still a bit dazed.

October 4: general election turns out to be inconclusive. October 22: President Aníbal Cavaco Silva asks the centre-right’s Pedro Passos Coelho to return as prime minister because his party won the most votes, though not a majority. November 10: new government ousted after 11 days by combined leftist parties’ vote of no-confidence.

November 24: After much discussion, the president reluctantly asks the centre-left Socialist leader António Costa to form a government. November 26: the new minority government that will rely on support from the far left is sworn in.

The almost stranger than fiction notion that moderate socialists, radical leftists and diehard communists could become partners in parliament has actually come to pass, but how long it will last is anyone’s guess. There has been no formal marriage. For now at least they’re just good friends, united in their dislike of austerity.

The president has requested Costa to provide “a stable, lasting and credible government solution,” but Passos Coelho has condemned Costa’s proposed policies as “reckless” and the Socialists post-election pact with the far left as “illegitimate.”

Costa’s forthcoming balancing act means continuing to placate erstwhile hard-left rivals while substantially reducing the burden of austerity to the benefit of the people, and at the same time ensuring stability by sticking to Portugal’s international fiscal commitments and keeping investors happy.

Costa, 54, a combative extrovert, is no stranger to trying to pull off the seemingly impossible. The thrice-elected mayor of Lisbon is said to enjoy relaxing with 1,000-piece jigsaw puzzles, but he regards himself as a man of action.

“I always deliver more than I promise,” is one of his best-known boasts, though it is not strictly true.

More than 20 years ago while running for mayor in the municipality of Loures north of Lisbon he famously drew attention to commuter problems by staging a race between a red Ferrari and a donkey in busy streets. The donkey won, but Costa lost the election.

He repeated a similar stunt 10 years later in central Lisbon, pitting a Porche against a taxi, the Metro and a bicycle. Costa rode the Metro and it was a toss up whether he or the cyclist won – but Costa certainly made his point about public transport.

We can but remain hopeful that he manages to pull off his next, much more complicated performance. If anything goes badly wrong, the country could face another general election in as little as six months from now.