As
anticipated, there was no outright winner in this election. The
centre-right coalition led by Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho won
the most votes, about 38%, but it lost its majority in parliament and
has little prospect of serving a full term.
The
centre-left polled just over 32% of the votes, less than expected,
which left António Costa with another fight on his hands: to
carry on as leader of the opposition Socialist Party amid calls for
his resignation.
The
anti-austerity Left Bloc (BE) achieved their best result ever with
more than 10% of the votes. The Communist Party dipped into
fourth position with just over 8%.
The
turnout was a record low: 43% of eligible voters stayed away,
probably because they don’t like any of the political parties or
felt their vote would not make much difference to the way the country
is being run.
An
outright majority in the 230-seat parliament would have required
44% of the vote. As it was, the coalition have so far come away
with just 104 seats - 12 short.
Four
seats are still undecided as final results of voters living abroad
are awaited. While emigrants have the right to vote, most don’t
bother. In 2011, non-voters abroad totalled 83%.
The
half a million Portuguese who have left the country since 2011 are
expected to add to the overall abstention rate.
"If we stay on the path we’ve been following, we won’t need any more
bailouts," was one of Passos Coelho’s campaign messages.
Although
his victory was a hollow one, at least he has the distinction of
being the first prime minister to be re-elected among the five
eurozone states that received a bank bailout.
The
2011-2015 coalition government’s austerity programme was hugely
unpopular, but it appears to have worked, at least to the liking of
Brussels. The coalition’s electioneering strong point was that
having exited its bailout program successfully in 2014, Portugal’s
economy looks like it is back on its feet, showing some of the best
growth rates in the eurozone.
Tough
times lie ahead but the economy is expected to grow 1.6 percent in
2015 and 1.8 percent next year, according to the latest forecasts
from the European Commission.
The
Socialists failed to capitalise on their promise to moderate the
government’s austerity measures. António Costa said they
would boost households’ disposable income while going along with
fiscal discipline and supporting the EU policies so adamantly opposed
by the far-left.
So, in essence, the 57% of voters who bothered to turn out have just generated a weaker version of the unpopular government they had
before. By a slim margin, voters have decided it's better to stick with the
devil they know.
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