Prospects for tourism in 2021?

There is so much uncertainty about Covid-19 that it’s impossible to predict how tourism will pan out in Portugal or anywhere else this year, but there are pieces of positive information that give rise for some optimism.

All sections of the Portuguese tourist industry, which is of huge economic importance to the country, have been deeply impacted. Resorts, hotels, B&Bs and rental holiday homes, as well as food and drink services, entertainment and cultural facilities, were shattered by the absence of holidaymakers in 2020.

“It’s not too early to think about travel in 2021,” according to a recent report by the Brussels-based European Travel Commission representing travel organisations in 33 countries. The report continued: “The coronavirus pandemic won’t last forever.  Once enough people have been vaccinated, the spread of Covid-19 could ease, and you’ll be in a better position to make plans." 

The Commission, led by an elected Portuguese member Luís Araújo, expects to see “a cascade of travel bargains late this year as airlines, hotels, rental firms like Airbnb, tour companies, cruise lines and destinations try to make up for a disastrous 2020.”

Southern Europe is seeing stronger domestic demand, which will offset some, but not all, of the hit to revenue, according to Bloomberg news. They quote Portugal’s Pestana Hotel Group chief executive officer José Theotonio as saying rooms in his January sales this year were snapped up by locals, as ongoing fear of travel bans and quarantines deterred foreign visitors.

In 2019, Portugal welcomed nearly 13 million visitors from abroad, mainly from the United Kingdom, Spain, France and Germany. The most popular mainland destinations were Lisbon, the Algarve and Northern Portugal. About 1.6 million visited the island of Madeira and 383,000 the other Atlantic autonomous region of the Azores archipelago.

The UK has meanwhile advanced far more quickly than any of the countries in the European Union in administering Covid vaccines and the numbers of infections and deaths are now falling significantly. This raises hopes that its strict lockdown measures can be eased, allowing foreign travel, possibly as early as Easter but more likely in summer.

Among those expressing optimism in recent days has been Prime Minister Boris Johnson. He said he thought easing the hospitality sector in the UK could “prudently and cautiously” follow the opening of schools on March 8 and then the reopening of non-essential retail businesses. 

It’s currently illegal for UK citizens to travel abroad on holidays or for other leisure purposes, but the government has announced it may lift its red alert travel ban to certain countries, including Portugal, at very short notice. 

The Azores international airline SANTA has announced the resumption of direct flights from 3^rd June between Stansted in London and Ponta Delgada on the island of São Miguel. These flights will be three times a week  -  Thursdays, Fridays and Sundays  -   with plans for onward links to Madeira, Boston, Montreal and Toronto. Discounts are being offered to those booking before March 14.

While the European Travel Commission is expecting a slow return towards normality this year, it is not anticipating a full recovery until 2023.

Under pre-Covid conditions, Portugal could expect about two million visitors from Spain this year, much the same as from the UK. However, January was the worst month in Spain for Covid infections and deaths since last summer. Emergency restrictions remain in place and the border between Spain and Portugal is still closed to almost all traffic by mutual government agreement. The closure of the eight border crossing points was extended from February 10 to the first day of March. 

In France and Germany, where the vaccination programmes got off to a slow start, travel associations say customers would very much like to book holidays, but are reluctant to do so. For most of their would-be holidaymakers, things are only expected to start improving in late May. Encouraging for the Algarve and other parts of the mainland and islands rich in biodiversity, are the numbers of potential French and German visitors keen on ecotourism.

While few summer holidays abroad have been sold so far in the UK, Spain, France, Germany or anywhere else in Europe, the tedious lockdowns are stoking desires to get away. This may mean holidays limited to domestic destinations. Realising desires to travel abroad will depend not only on restrictions being lifted in home countries, but also restrictions in planned foreign destinations.

Many of those who would like to get away this year cannot afford to because of job cuts or business closures. On the other hand, many will be able to get away because of money saved that they have been unable to spend in closed non-essential shops and services.

The severe national restrictions in Portugal are impacting on many businesses while aimed at getting high infection and death rates down so that it is safer to reopen those very businesses again for tourists as well as local citizens. How that strategy works remains to be seen.

 

More Covid vaccines available: Alternatives to AstraZeneca

Doubts remain about the effectiveness of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine against Covid-19, but far more doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine are currently available in Portugal.

So far, Portugal has received 42,300 AstraZeneca doses compared to almost 390,000 doses of Pfizer-BioNTech, but only 19,200 doses of Moderna. More batches of all three of these vaccines are expected this month. Coronavirus vaccinations are free for all in this country.

Doubts about AstraZenica began recently when South Africa halted using it because of a study suggesting it may have only limited use against new variants of coronavirus. Portugal's national health authority has advised that it is preferable to use a vaccine other than AstraZenica for those aged 65 and over.

Germany, France, Austria and Norway are now only administering AstraZeneca to those aged under 65. Poland is restricting its use to those under 60 and Italy and Spain to the under-55s.

World Health Organisation officials have offered reassurance that AstraZeneca jabs will prevent serious illness and death, even from the new South African strain of the virus.   

Meanwhile, it is argued that all vaccines seem to be less effective against mutant strains of coronavirus. There is confidence in the UK, however, that AstraZeneneca is highly effective against the dominant type of virus and it continues to be widely used in Britain.

Some 340 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccine are to be shipped from the WHO-supported Covax global procurement facility to poor countries, including several in southern Africa.

A spokesman for the WHO team who recently returned from an investigative visit to Wuhan in China said they had not yet determined the precise origins of the Covid virus in December 2019, but thought it most likely to have had an animal source. They dismissed as very unlikely that it originated as a leak from a laboratory.

 

Vaccination plan to speed up

 In contrast to the recent record high Covid infection and death rates in Portugal, vaccinations have been slow to start, but are now expected to accelerate.

Amid a scandal over “queue jumping” by people who were not officially prioritised, a new head of the vaccination task force has started work to ramp up the country’s needs. The goal is to have most adults to have their jabs by late summer if not earlier this year.

Minister of Health Marta Temido said last Friday that 400,000 people had been given their first vaccination and about 100,000  their second.

Last Thursday the   European Centre for Disease Control stated that Portugal had received only 387,000 vaccine doses and administered 310,00 of them.

It’s hoped that vaccinating the rest of the population will not continue to be impeded by promised quantities of vaccines not being available as in the rest of Europe. Logistical uncertainties may lie ahead, but the main concern at present is still having the ordered vaccines delivered on time rather than any difficulties in administering them.

Those registered with the national health service can expect to receive a text message, phone call or letter with a date, time and place for a vaccination.

Priority is being given to those over the age of 80. This will extend to those aged over 70 as well as those aged over 50 with any relevant health problem.

The possible side effects of the vaccines currently available are said to be mild.

It remains to be seen how effective the current vaccines are in coping with any more new mutant strains of the coronavirus.

Portugal will be keeping an eye on the Covid-19 vaccination programme in the United Kingdom, which has been far faster out of the blocks than anywhere in the European Union and has come up with an innovative plan.

Medical teams in the UK have started giving a second jab different to the first. It’s hoped this mix and match approach will counter any inefficacy or shortage in supply of one or the other.

Supply shortages have been worrying authorities all across the EU, but Portugal is moving ahead with the AstraZeneca vaccine that caused so much controversy between the EU and the Oxford-based pharmaceutical producer over AstraZeneca’s availability in Europe.  It's effectiveness is now somewhat in doubt.

About 11 million people in the UK, more than the entire population of Portugal, have already received at least their first jab and that is expected to increase rapidly in the weeks and months ahead. By the beginning of this month the 27 member states of the EU had administered as a whole just over 8 million does.

Meanwhile, Portugal’s hospitals have been under what Prime Minister António Costa has called “gigantic pressure.” Their main focus, with help from abroad, has been on treating the infected patients as the Covid death rate spiralled. It is believed to have now reached its peak. 

Very strict lockdown measures are in place and will probably remain so until it’s clear that infection rates are coming down significantly and that vaccination jabs are working as hoped. Even in the UK and elsewhere, the dilemma will probably remain for weeks to come as to whether it’s a sound strategy to lessen restrictions to boost normal daily life and businesses at the risk of causing an increase in infections.    

Of particular annoyance to the World Health Organisation is the extreme inequality of vaccine availability in the world’s richer and poorer nations. The situation in sub-Saharan Africa and Afghanistan is especially dire. The head of the WHO has warned of “a “catastrophic moral failure” to provide adequate access to vaccines in poorer countries.

 

Coronavirus pandemic is causing mental health havoc

 

Mental health issues are festering on the sidelines of the constant news reports about Covid-19 infection and death rates, strict lockdown measures, the economic slump and vaccination plans.  

As is the case globally, a great many citizens in Portugal have to cope with Covid-related stress, anxiety, loneliness, fear, depression, anger or worse. 

Other symptoms include changes in appetite, energy and interests. Some people are having difficulty concentrating, making decisions or sleeping. Headaches, body pains, stomach problems and skin rashes are among the physical reactions to worsening mental conditions that at the other end of the scale are causing domestic violence and self-harm. 

 
According to a leading Portuguese psychologist,   Francisco Miranda Rodrigues, there are only 2.5 mental health professionals per 100,000 people in Portugal. As the months go by, more and more people - especially those living alone or in very tight family units with little or no income - have become vulnerable. 

Portugal has gone from being one of the least affected by the pandemic to having the highest infection and death rates per head of population in the world. 

 
While hospitals are being overwhelmed and struggling to take in more coronavirus patients, they are also faced with trying to treat patients arriving with illnesses just as deadly, or even more so. Mental health is thus being over-shadowed.

Nearly 40% of all Covid deaths occurred this January. In March last year, this was the last country in Europe to register its first Covid-19 case. 

 
Portugal’s total contagion figures per head of population went on last year

 to be as little as 10 percent of those in neighbouring Spain, while the latter was one of the most affected countries in the European Union. Perhaps this helped create complacency in Portugal.

There is certainly no complacency now. Tight lockdown restrictions have been extended at least to the middle of this month and the border with Spain has been closed. As necessary as these measures may be, they have led to greater public frustration and protests.

The sluggish rollout of vaccines is troubling to many citizens. Others have little or no confidence in the vaccines, an attitude supported by disinformation and scare-mongering on social media. 

It’s estimated that as little as 30 percent of Portugal’s population is even abiding by the social distancing rules. This may be due in part to pandemic fatigue that has been on the rise since last March, says Francisco Miranda Rodrigues.

“It’s a complicated cocktail of causes, perhaps unique to Portugal,” he told Aljazeera. “Twenty percent of our population lives in poverty or social exclusion, a very significant figure, and after such a long pandemic their limited resources have been used up. As a result, their ability to follow the lockdown rules has gone up in smoke.”

As in other countries, the Portuguese government’s “stay at home” mantra has been complicated by pages of confusing exceptions to the basic rules. The threat of fines has added to worries and annoyance.

 
Herbal remedies and prescription anti-depressant drugs are available in pharmacies, but mental health specialists have a number of other suggestions to help those struggling on their own with Covid-related problems.

 
For a start it’s a good idea to take lengthy breaks from viewing, listening to or reading about Covid news. Thinking as positively as possible and confiding as necessary in those you trust may be reassuring.

By taking care of your body you will be taking care of you mind too. That means a well-balanced diet, regular exercise, avoiding excessive alcohol, tobacco or other dodgy substances, and getting plenty of sleep.

 

Victory for Rebelo de Sousa

 

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will concentrate on the devastating impacts of Covid-19 as he starts his second five-year term as Portugal’s president.

“Everything starts with the battle against the pandemic,” said the 72-year-old moderate, centre-right politician in his victory speech. His victory had been clearly predicted. The low turnout of voters on Sunday did not come as any surprise either.

Rebelo de Sousa won 61 percent of the votes cast. The turnout was less than 40 percent of the total number of registered voters due to the worsening Covid crisis.  

The veteran centre-left politician Ana Gomes, who stood as an independent, came second in the election with 13 percent of the votes. André Ventura of the far-right came third with 12 percent.

Although the role of Portugal’s president is largely ceremonial, he can be very influential and has major powers in times of political crisis.

Rebelo de Sousa is likely to continue cooperating with the centre-left minority Socialist government led by Prime Minister António Costa. The Socialists decided not to field a candidate against de Sousa, but urged citizens to vote in the presidential election.

While Rebelo de Sousa’s victory was never in doubt, much interest had been focused on André Ventura. Right-wing nationalism is flourishing in several EU countries, but until now has had almost no place in Portugal since the dictatorship was toppled in the revolution of 1974.

Portugal is currently experiencing one of the highest per capita coronavirus infection and death rates in the world. The numbers have been steeply climbing since Christmas and the surge last week was deeply shocking. The rollout of vaccines has been slow as indeed it has been across the whole of the European Union.

The current severe lockdown restrictions throughout Portugal were partially lifted to let voters go to the polling booths on Sunday. The full ban on people moving about outdoors except for well defined essential purposes is in place until Saturday 30^th January. All cafes and restaurants except those selling takeaways, and all shops except those selling food, will remain closed. This may extend into February.

The nationwide closure of schools for 14 days was added to the curfew rules at the end of last week.  

Coronavirus complicates Portugal's presidential election

 President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa

 

A surge in Covid-19 to record levels in Portugal has already affected Sunday’s presidential election.

Because of the strict lockdown measures throughout the country, and because there are no postal or electronic methods of voting in place, special arrangements were made for elderly citizens in quarantine and in care homes to cast their ballots well ahead of time. 

Many of the more than 10 million registered voters will use the normal polling-booth system on Sunday, but the total turnout is almost certain to be exceptionally low. 

Incumbent President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and his six rival candidates have been frustrated in their campaigning by not being able to get out and about to meet citizens. 

Rebelo de Sousa is expected to comfortably win a second term in office. This is despite harsh criticism from opponents for his cooperation with the minority socialist government in the handling of the Covid crisis.    

President de Sousa, 72, won his first five-year term in March 2016. He is a veteran of the the right-of-centre Portuguese Social Democratic Party (PSD), a former professor and a popular media pundit. 

While the role of the president is largely ceremonial, he has strong powers in times of political crisis. So far, he has worked well with the centre-left Socialist prime minister, António Costa, who leads a minority government wanting for support. 

Second place in the presidential election is likely to go to either Ana Gomes of the centre-left or André Ventura of the hard right. Ventura is particularly controversial as he is the strongest representative of the hard right since the toppling of Portugal’s dictatorship in the 1974 revolution.  

The daily statistics for people affected by the Covid-19 pandemic have surged since Christmas. They are expected to rise further in the immediate future.

Last Wednesday, more than 14,600 new Covid infections set a national record and one of the highest surges in the world. Covid deaths were being recorded on average every seven minutes. 

The health authorities confirmed that there were about 3,600 more cases on Wednesday than the previous daily record set a few days earlier. 

The number of COVID-19 patients in hospital and in intensive care has also soared to record heights and pushed medical facilities to their limits. 

The military are collaborating with public and private hospitals to help meet the unprecedented needs. 

The current tight restrictions, which are obviously creating great social and economic hardships, will continue at least until Saturday 30th January. A review may extend them further.  

An EU virtual summit meeting on Thursday highlighted disagreement on plans to restrict cross-border travel. Some member states want a total ban. 

Portugal has now banned all flights with the UK, especially in the light of variants of the coronavirus.

Serious concerns were expressed during the summit meeting over the relatively slow rollout of virus vaccines across Europe.

By 17^th January, more than 662,000 deaths due to the pandemic had been recorded across Europe. 

 

If possible, stay at home!

Instead of a return in the direction of a new normality we had all wished for at New Year, restrictions throughout mainland Portugal and the Azores have been tightened in response to the worsening coronavirus pandemic.

The mantra for the rest of this month is “stay at home.”

Acceptable reasons for leaving home include going to essential workplaces, medical facilities such a hospitals, clinics and pharmacies, schools or shops selling food.

The restrictions are not expected to hinder the vaccination programme. Banks and petrol stations will remain open. So will all educational establishments.

Places closed include: cafes, restaurants except those selling takeaways, non-food shops, hairdressing saloons and gyms. Facemasks, social distancing and avoiding large groups remain mandatory.

The number of Covid infections and deaths have accelerated to record levels since Christmas.

The new measures will be reviewed and may be lightened after Saturday 30th January.

Fines to be imposed on those breaking the current full lockdown rules have doubled.

A special dispensation will be allowed on 24th January for those voting in the presidential election.The voter turnout is likely to be low. The current president, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, is expected to win a second term.

The impact of the new tight restrictions will cause financial hardship to many business owners and employees. Those in the Algarve are particularly angry, some protesting publicly and saying that the Algarve should not be in lockdown to the same degree as the areas elsewhere in the country where the virus infection and death rates have been higher.

All direct flights between Portugal and the UK have been stopped. The UK has banned arrivals from Portugal as well as most South American countries to help control the spread of a new strain of the virus. Portugal has been singled out in Europe because of its close travel links with Brazil. 

UK and Irish citizens, as well as third country nationals with UK residency rights, may still enter the UK, but will have to quarantine after arrival.