Spain to follow in Portugal’s footsteps?

Not for the first time, Spain looks like following in the footsteps of its much smaller neighbour.

It’s not quite on the grand scale of the Spanish taking their cue from the Portuguese in the Age of Discoveries, or in switching from dictatorship to democracy in the 1970s.

However, the outcome of Sunday’s general election over the border may turn out to be as muddled as the recent political events in Portugal, giving rise to even greater worries within Europe about instability as Spain is the EU’s fourth biggest economy.

The pre-election polls in Spain showed not much separating the conservative Popular Party, the centre-left Socialists and the slightly right-of-centre Ciudadanos (‘Citizens’) party.

The recent rise of Ciudadanos to rival the two established patries has been spectacular. The surge in popularity of the new anti-austerity Podemos, follows that of Portugal’s Left Bloc and Greece’s Syriza.

To form a government straight away, one of the parties must win more than 50% of the seats in parliament in Sunday’s election.

As with the conservative coalition in Portugal before the 4th October election here, the PP in Spain are likely to gain the most votes but not a majority.

If so, King Filipe VI will enter the fray as did President Aníbal Cavaco Silva here. He will nominate a prime minister who will then seek the backing of at least 50% of the elected members of parliament.

This will involve horse-trading in which the party with the most votes might be able to drum up support from one of the others and emerge with a mandate to govern.

If such a backing does not materialise, the Spanish tradition is to have a second ballot among elected members of parliament within 48 hours.

Ciudadanos might not win the most votes at any stage but they could be pivotal. As a centrist party they might give conditional backing to either the conservatives or the socialists - or they might receive such backing.

A grand coalition between the conservatives and socialists is thought unlikely. Where, of if, Podemos could fit into any mix is anyone’s guess.

But the improbable is not impossible as demonstrated in Portugal where a trio of losing parties ended up determining the government.

The voter turnout in Spain may be higher than in Portugal because of the colourful choice of characters involved.

The PP’s Mariano Rajoy, 60, has been a surprisingly introverted prime minister who asked his deputy, Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría, to replace him in a televised debate with the other party leaders. On Wednesday he was punched in the face by a teenager at a campaign rally in his home region of Galicia.

The relaxed, down-to.earth, Pedro Sánchez, 43, is a tall and handsome former economics professor and basketball player who towers over his political opponents physically.

The gentlemanly leader of Ciudadanos, Albert Rivera, is only 36-years-old, a lawyer who first came to prominence by appearing on a campaign poster naked but for a leather jacket.

Pablo Iglesias of Podemos is a easy-going 37-year-old professor of political science who in a way epitomises the radical left by shunning quality suits and sporting a pony-tail hairstyle.

One way or another, it’s measuring up to be an unusual Christmas for politicians over the border. If things remain messy rather than merry, a second general election will have to be held two months into the new year.

The Socialist , Podemos and Ciudadanos leaders at a televised debate at which the Popular Party was represented by its deputy leader (far right). 

The Algarve oil and gas fight goes on

As the implications of the Paris agreement on climate change began to hit home in countries around the world this week, there was no great sigh of relief in the Algarve where concerns are running high about oil and gas explorations.

With the future of the planet at stake,195 countries agreed in Paris to cut carbon emissions in an attempt to limit the average rise in global temperatures to well below 2C, and maybe even below 1.5ºC.

Twenty years in the making, the agreement is a recognition that without curbs on carbon emissions, temperatures could rise well above 2ºC, with catastrophic consequences.

The agreement envisages an end to the age of fossil fuels by the middle of this century. The goal is to replace oil, coal and natural gas with renewable, low carbon forms of energy.

Widely described as “historic”, the agreement still has to be ratified. And then it has to be implemented, which will be all the more difficult because it is largely based on voluntary promises that are not legally binding. In other words, the agreement is far from perfect.

Portugal’s Secretary of State for the Environment, Carlos Martins, welcomed the accord, but said there was “demanding work ahead.”

Whatever its shortcomings, thrashing out the Paris deal required a lot of information sharing, transparency, public scrutiny and open dialogue. This was in stark contrast to the conniving that has been going on in Lisbon over fossil fuel explorations in the Algarve.

Through the association of borough councils (AMAL), the Algarve’s mayors recently added their voices to those of campaigners who have long been critical of the cloud of secrecy behind the issuing of  concessions for coastal oil and gas explorations.

The latest announcement of  licences for onshore exploration almost right across the region came without the opportunity for any prior public discussion.

An AMAL statement denounced as unjustifiable “the constant absence of information either to councils, the inter-municipal community of the Algarve or Algarve citizens by successive governments.”

The authorities in Lisbon have turned a blind eye to serious concerns expressed by campaigners about the impact drilling for oil and gas could have on the quality of life in the Algarve and its most vital economic activity, tourism.

In the light of the Paris accord, the world’s fossil fuel companies, especially those that have not diversified into other forms of energy, will now have to figure out the way forward. And could it be that the government in Lisbon may have to re-examine the readiness to hand out concessions?

In the forefront of the Algarve anti-exploration battle, Laurinda Seabra of the Algarve Surf and Marine Activities Association (ASMAA) remains resolute.

“Based on the fact that direct mention of fossil-fuels is lacking in the Paris agreement, I very much doubt that this agreement on its own will motivate the Portuguese government to change its current position regarding fossil fuels and the continued promotion of its exploration and commercialisation in Portugal,” Seabra told us.

She added: “This means that the fight by local residents and friends of the Algarve has to escalate seriously if we want the Portuguese government to change direction.”

Portugal in global climate risk top 20

Portugal was among the 20 countries in the world most affected by global warming over the past 20 years, according to a Global Climate Risk Index report presented at the climate change conference in Paris.

“The Index indicates the level of exposure and vulnerability to extreme events that countries should understand as a warning to be prepared for more frequent and more severe events in the future,” says the report.

The 20-year index covering the period 1995 to 2014 is dominated by some of the least developed countries in the world.

Portugal appears in 19th place, third in Europe after Germany and alongside France. The UK, which was struck this week by devastating floods, is well down the list at 58.

The Index says there have been more than 15,000 extreme climatic events over the past 20 years resulting in 530,000 deaths, immense wastage in food production and financial losses exceeded 2.8 trillion euros.

The Rockefeller Foundation estimates that over the past 30 years, one dollar in every three spent in development was lost as a result of recurrent climate crises.

Behind the most obvious extreme events, such as floods, landslides, heatwaves and droughts, lurk melting glaciers, increases in ocean acidity and ominous rises in sea levels.

Sea levels along the shores of mainland Portugal have been rising annually over the past decade by more than four millimetres, twice as much as in the previous two decades, according to a report commissioned by the government and published last year.

Increases in average summer temperatures of 1ºC to 2ºC in the Azores, 2ºC to 3ºC in Madeira and up to 7ºC on mainland Portugal have been predicted by climate specialists.

The aim expressed during the Paris conference is to keep average global increases to below 2ºC. Feared average increases of 4ºC could elevate sea levels to a height that would swamp almost every coastal town and resort in the Algarve, as well as the lower parts of Lisbon and two-thirds of the world’s other major cities.

At the start of the Paris conference, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon launched an initiative aimed at “anticipating the dangers, absorbing the impact and reshaping development” to avoid the risks of climate change facing 634 million people living in coastal areas and drought and flood zones.

It is expected that detailed agreements on this and other measures will be signed before the talks wrap up in Paris at the weekend.

Meanwhile, the authors of the Global Climate Risk Index acknowledge that individual extreme events (such as in Albufeira last month) cannot necessarily be attributed to climate change caused by humans.

Moreover, the authors recognise that their latest report is only one piece in the complex jigsaw of climate change statistics. The events recorded do not serve as a projection for future occurrences – but they are certainly an indication that should be taken very seriously.

The good news is that during a recent congress of the Portuguese Association of Renewable Enterprises, the state energy secretary, Jorge Seguro, emphasised the importance of investing in the renewable industry. He said that with the help of green energy investments this country had already reduced its fossil fuel dependence from 85% to 72%.

Between 2010 and 2013, Portugal saved €5.3 billion in imports of fossil fuels (gas, solid fuels and oil) thanks to renewables. The industry created 40,000 jobs and exported products worth €300 million.

The goal is to increase the use of renewables in Portugal to 31% by 2020.

Eyes to the left to see what comes next

Lest there was any doubt, it has just been confirmed that we live in a politically weird world. Never mind the shenanigans going on elsewhere in Europe and farther afield, Portugal now has a new government - another new government.

Having muddled through almost two rudderless months since the general election, Portugal finds itself still faced with huge economic problems and now heading towards a highly uncertain 2016 with one of the most unlikely of government setups imaginable.

Even by the standard of Portugal's turbulent young democracy, recent weeks have been dizzying. Just to recap for those still a bit dazed.

October 4: general election turns out to be inconclusive. October 22: President Aníbal Cavaco Silva asks the centre-right’s Pedro Passos Coelho to return as prime minister because his party won the most votes, though not a majority. November 10: new government ousted after 11 days by combined leftist parties’ vote of no-confidence.

November 24: After much discussion, the president reluctantly asks the centre-left Socialist leader António Costa to form a government. November 26: the new minority government that will rely on support from the far left is sworn in.

The almost stranger than fiction notion that moderate socialists, radical leftists and diehard communists could become partners in parliament has actually come to pass, but how long it will last is anyone’s guess. There has been no formal marriage. For now at least they’re just good friends, united in their dislike of austerity.

The president has requested Costa to provide “a stable, lasting and credible government solution,” but Passos Coelho has condemned Costa’s proposed policies as “reckless” and the Socialists post-election pact with the far left as “illegitimate.”

Costa’s forthcoming balancing act means continuing to placate erstwhile hard-left rivals while substantially reducing the burden of austerity to the benefit of the people, and at the same time ensuring stability by sticking to Portugal’s international fiscal commitments and keeping investors happy.

Costa, 54, a combative extrovert, is no stranger to trying to pull off the seemingly impossible. The thrice-elected mayor of Lisbon is said to enjoy relaxing with 1,000-piece jigsaw puzzles, but he regards himself as a man of action.

“I always deliver more than I promise,” is one of his best-known boasts, though it is not strictly true.

More than 20 years ago while running for mayor in the municipality of Loures north of Lisbon he famously drew attention to commuter problems by staging a race between a red Ferrari and a donkey in busy streets. The donkey won, but Costa lost the election.

He repeated a similar stunt 10 years later in central Lisbon, pitting a Porche against a taxi, the Metro and a bicycle. Costa rode the Metro and it was a toss up whether he or the cyclist won – but Costa certainly made his point about public transport.

We can but remain hopeful that he manages to pull off his next, much more complicated performance. If anything goes badly wrong, the country could face another general election in as little as six months from now.  

A tough call: who gets to govern?

The next few days are shaping up to be among the most remarkable in the annals of Portuguese democracy.

On Monday, parliament will debate the centre-right coalition’s proposed programme for governing the country.

On Tuesday or Wednesday, members of all parties will vote to accept or reject the programme.

The centre-right Portugal Forward (PAF) coalition has 107 seats in parliament, having lost its majority in the October 4 general election. It is possible, however, that some rebels within the opposition centre-left Socialist Party (PS) may vote in favour of the coalition’s programme.

It is thought more likely that the Socialists will be backed by the radical Left Bloc (BE) and the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) in rejecting the PAF programme.

The Socialists have 87 seats, the Left Bloc 19 , the Communists 17 and an environmentalist-animal rights party a single seat. Such a collective could raise a majority in the 230-seat parliament.

If the centre-right programme is voted down, it will be the state president’s constitutional job to decide what comes next.

Will President Aníbal Cavaco Silva ask the centre-right coalition under Pedro Passos Coelho to serve in a caretaker capacity, knowing that the earliest possible date for a new legislative election will be in six months time?

Will he instead permit the moderate Socialist Party under António Costa to form a government that has some sort of agreement, if not a formal alliance, with the far-left parties?

Passos Coelho has said he would like to reach a compromise arrangement with the Socialists. This would avoid political instability that could be economically crippling as the country seeks to make a recovery in the wake of the debt crisis that brought an international bailout and severe austerity measures.

The centre-right leader admits he could soon be ousted, but vows to be “where I am needed,” either as prime minister or leader of the opposition.

Costa, who has said he will abide by Portugal’s EU budget obligations, has been trying hard to firm up accords with the far-left parties despite ideological differences on major issues involving the EU.

Unthinkable just a few weeks ago, reports suggest some sort of working deal between moderate and extreme leftists has already been reached.

President Cavaco Silva has pointed out that “in 40 years of democracy, no Portuguese government has ever depended on the support of anti-European forces, in other words, forces which have campaigned to repeal the Treaty of Lisbon, the Budgetary Pact, and the Stability and Growth Pact, as well as calling for the dismantling of the Monetary Union and an exit from the Eurozone - not to mention leaving NATO.”

The president has also noted: “This is the worst possible time for radical change in the foundations of our democracy.”

He has promised to do everything possible within his constitutional power “to avoid sending false signals to the financial institutions, the investors and the markets.”

Obviously the situation is highly sensitive, but some ill-informed critics and biased commentators in the foreign media have not been able to resist exaggerating.

The president has been accused of staging “a coup d'etat,” and exposing “the undemocratic nature of the EU.” It has been claimed that “Portugal’s constitutional crisis threatens all of Europe’s democracies.”

Aside from such alarming notions about a country that others have described as “an oasis of stability in southern Europe,” speculation about the coming showdown is rife. We shall just have to wait and see which way things go, but we won’t have to wait long.

President Aníbal Cavaco Silva

Cooperation is better than commotion

Amid the mass of coverage in the media here and abroad, about the only thing clear at the moment is that the interests of the majority of voters in this month’s general election are not being best served with the prospect of either a minority centre-right government or a left-wing alliance of unlikely bedfellows.

Things may become clearer – or even more confused – when the incumbent minority seeks a vote of confidence in parliament in the next few days.

Unfortunately, the inconclusive election results did not spur the leaders of the two main parties to try and reach a reasonable compromise arrangement aimed at giving the majority of voters what they are fervently hoping for: stability and less austerity.

Having endured years of severe austerity, voters object to the on-going heavy burden, but they don’t want to throw away what their resilience has achieved since the bailout of 2011.

Not an easy task for the leaders of the centre-right PaF coalition, with their 38.6% of the vote, or the centre-left Socialists, with their 32.3%, but surely they should be doing their very best to find enough common ground to ensure stability by easing austerity while upholding fiscal obligations and remaining on the cautiously optimistic road to recovery.

Democracy thrives on clashes of ideas, raging disputes and robust disagreements, mindful of what is best for national and international communities, but sometimes equanimity and determined cooperation is the best approach, especially in times of crisis.

After the October 4 election, Pedro Passos Coelho and António Costa, the leaders of Portugal’s two main parties, only managed two face-to-face meetings before giving up on the fundamental wishes of their combined total of 70.9% of voters.

The electorate be damned, the country now has a minority interim government that will struggle to survive months, never mind years, and risks being toppled by an unprecedented left-wing alliance that no one voted for.

The moderate Socialist Party has long denounced the severity of the austerity measures imposed by the ruling coalition, but it is in favour of eurozone membership and abiding by the EU rules.

Only after the unsuccessful election did the Socialist leader shunt towards Portugal’s far left, homeland of Syriza sympathisers and hard-line opponents of Portugal’s membership of the eurozone, the EU and NATO.

Portugal is not Greece. The attraction for Costa was the number of seats secured by the Left Bloc and the Communist Party, which respectively received 10.2% and 8.3% of the electoral vote.

If they and a smaller ‘nature’ party all back the Socialists, the broad left would have a combined total of 122 seats, 15 more than the centre-right coalition in the 230-seat national assembly.

It remains to be seen if such an alliance can set aside traditional ideological differences and appease any rebels within the ranks in order to make it a pragmatic political grouping, if not a formally united power.

It also remains to be seen if a majority of the electorate want such an entity and any shared political programme it can come up with.

Despite all the flapping over the past couple of weeks, Portugal is no stranger to minority or coalition governments. Since the return of democracy in 1974, both of the current main parties have run minority administrations. More to the point, the two main parties governed as a left and right centrist coalition in the 1980s.

Never before, however, have leftist parties ruled in coalition. They may soon unite to cripple the minority centre-right, although that does not mean the far left will agree to join a Socialist-led government.

Meanwhile, a record number of registered voters (40.8%) did not participate in the October 4 election, largely because they are fed up with politics and distrustful of politicians of all parties. Sadly, you can see why.

And so the show goes on. If the convoluted events of the past couple of weeks were not so serious and potentially damaging, you’d think it had something to do with Halloween.    

Pedro Passos Coelho and António Costa

Confusion confronts new government

 Portugal’s head of state has given the green light to Pedro Passos Coelho and his centre-right Forward Portugal (PaF) coalition to follow up on their first term in office and form a new government. But that doesn't mean the inconclusive outcome of the general election is all sorted. Far from it.

President Aníbal Cavaco Silva’s decision to deny an unprecedented left-wing alliance the opportunity to govern has gone down well in Brussels and across conservative Europe, but it has caused a commotion at home.

The October 4 election produced no clear winner and this  presented the largely ceremonial head of state with stark options. Although a former Social Democrat leader himself, Cavaco Silva was required by the constitution to fairly judge which group was best positioned to lead the country.

After consulting with all the political parties and in line with tradition, on Thursday evening the president nominated the group with the most electoral votes. He gave them ten days to present a four-year programme for approval by parliament.

Passos Coelho hopes to be able to count on support from any centre-left Socialists (PS) unhappy about the notion of an alliance with the radical Far Left (BE) and the hard-line Communist parties (PCP).

Should Passos Coelho fail to obtain a parliamentary vote of confidence for his programme for the next four years, the president will then be expected to ask the broad left to try to form a government.

Passos Coelho has told the president of the steps he would take to continue sound pro-European governance by the PaF coalition despite failing to get an absolute majority on October 4.

Catarina Martins, spokesperson for the anti-establishment Left Block, which has much in common with Greece’s Syriza and Spain’s Podemos, has said the BE will have the PCP’s support in tabling a motion rejecting the centre-right confidence vote in parliament in the days ahead.

It is thought the Socialists may close ranks and do the same, although more moderate members of the PS are said to be increasingly uneasy about “the self-defeating and reckless” direction in which their leader may be taking them.

Socialist leader António Costa, whose party came second in the election, decided against striking any deal with the incumbent centre-right, but managed to garnered support from the Left Bloc and the Communists who finished third and fourth in the election.

Because of historic feuding, it seemed improbably before and even immediately after the vote counting that the country could end up with a triple left-wing alliance. But it has become a possibility.

The prospect of a sudden shift from a government that co-operated closely with international lenders, to one with anti-austerity and anti-EU leanings, sparked concern among conservative governments and fiscal markets in the eurozone.

During the immediate post-election period this month, Costa, whose personal position seemed in doubt after the disappointing PS election result, reasoned that the centre-right option would not be viable and would simply “prolong the uncertainty” in the country. He has now criticised the president for creating a “useless political crisis.”

The Left Bloc's Catarina Martins said another centre-right government would be “a waste of time” as it could not expect to serve for long. She has chastised the president for “creating instability” and acting like “a cult leader.”

Jerónimo de Sousa, leader of the Communists, maintained that a majority left-wing government was feasible though it had long been spurned by many Socialists. He criticised Cavaco Silva for his “confrontational stance and disregard for the constitution.”

Paulo Portas, the incumbent deputy prime minister and leader of the rightist CDS-People's Party, said it was “absolutely extraordinary that a political leader fighting for his survival” (Costa) could even consider overriding “the vote of the people,” albeit it a minority vote.

Amid the domestic slanging, EU officials have threatened to take action against Portugal for not presenting its draft 2016 budget by the 15 October deadline. Portugal is still running one of the highest budget deficits in the eurozone.

Thursday’s announcement by President Cavaco Silva did not banish international fears that further weeks of uncertainty could harm Portugal's economic recovery more than a year after it exited the strict terms of its €78bn international bailout.

On the same day as President Cavaco Silva’s new government announcement, Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, expressed hope that Passos Coelho would be successful, but also spoke of her concern that upcoming elections in Spain and Ireland could see a swing to anti-austerity forces.

“We face difficult situations in Ireland, Spain and Portugal,” she told a meeting of the centre-right European People’s Party (PPP) in Madrid.

Even if Portugal’s centre-right get a vote of confidence in parliament in the days ahead, the new government will struggle to get through major legislative issues and is likely to have a limited life span.

No further general election can be held before May or June of next year. There will, however, be a presidential election when Cavaco Silva steps down in January. The future president’s first task may be to help clear up a political mess.

President Cavaco Silva with Prime Minister Passos Coelho (above) 
and opposition leader António Costa (below)